Rebordosa v Vinhais prediction · Campeonato de Portugal Prio

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

RebordosaDrawVinhais

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Rebordosa 58%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rebordosa are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rebordosa 58%, draw 25%, Vinhais 17%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Rebordosa v VinhaisBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Rebordosa win58%

Draw25%

Vinhais win17%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup A · matchday 6

VenueComplexo Desportivo Azevido

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rebordosa

Vinhais

14Days since last match14

Last match: 11 Oct · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Rebordosa	5	−1	5
14	Vinhais	5	−10	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rebordosa winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

58% The market–

Us58%

We make Rebordosa a 58% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rebordosa v Vinhais~~1.67 – 0.77

~~Form · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A this season · since 16 Aug~~W1 D2 L2 · W0 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 5 v 0~~9 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rebordosa win	58%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Vinhais win	17%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Rebordosa or draw	83%	–	–
Rebordosa clean sheet	47%	–	–
Vinhais clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.3%

0123450 9.4 6.6 2.7 1 14.3 11.3 4.3 2 11.9 9.0 3.5 3 6.7 5.0 4 2.9 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rebordosa down, Vinhais across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 861 Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.7% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Rebordosa at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Vinhais away: 0.00 scored, 3.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Rebordosa, 0.77 for Vinhais. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A this season · since 16 Aug

REBORDOSA

LLWDD0–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–0

VINHAIS

LLLLL0–1 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chaves II	5	+5	12
2	SC Braga B	5	+6	11
3	Os Limianos	5	+4	11
4	Bragança	5	+3	10
5	Tirsense	5	+4	9
6	Montalegre	5	+4	9
7	Vila Meã	5	+4	8
8	Celoricense	5	+1	8
9	Rebordosa	5	−1	5
10	Ponte da Barca	5	−4	4
11	Maria da Fonte	5	−5	4
12	Brito	5	−8	3
13	Maia Lidador	5	−3	2
14	Vinhais	5	−10	0