Ponte da Barca v Rebordosa prediction · Campeonato de Portugal Prio

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Ponte da Barca 0–0 Rebordosa REBORDOSA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rebordosa win~~37%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.780

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.788

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rebordosa win at 37%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Rebordosa 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 35–28–37
1′KICK-OFF Ponte da Barca v Rebordosa
2′Little has changed for our model: Rebordosa 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 35–28–37
34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Rebordosa win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME Ponte da Barca 0–0 Rebordosa
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Rebordosa win 32%)
46′SECOND HALF Ponte da Barca 0–0 Rebordosa
FTFULL TIME Ponte da Barca 0–0 Rebordosa
FTPonte da Barca 0–0 Rebordosa · Rebordosa win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Ponte da Barca win35%

Draw28%

Rebordosa win37%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Ponte da Barca

Rebordosa

28Days since last match14

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Rebordosa	4	−1	4
11	Ponte da Barca	4	−4	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rebordosa winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

37% The market48%

Us37%

~~Market~~48%

We make Rebordosa a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · rebordosa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ponte da Barca win	35%	24%	+12
Draw	28%	29%	−1
Rebordosa win	37%	48%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	42%	46%	−4
Both teams to score	47%	51%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	68%	70%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	22%	27%	−5
Ponte da Barca or draw	63%	52%	+11
Ponte da Barca clean sheet	31%	–	–
Rebordosa clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 9.8 11.2 6.8 2.8 1 10.9 12.9 7.6 3.1 2 6.4 7.4 4.4 3 2.5 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ponte da Barca down, Rebordosa across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 854 Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Ponte da Barca at home: 1.50 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 2). Rebordosa away: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Ponte da Barca, 1.21 for Rebordosa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A

PONTE DA BARCA

LWLL1–2 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 0–3

REBORDOSA

WWLLWD1–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bragança	4	+5	10
2	Tirsense	4	+5	9
3	Chaves II	4	+1	9
4	SC Braga B	4	+5	8
5	Os Limianos	4	+3	8
6	Vila Meã	4	+4	7
7	Celoricense	4	+1	7
8	Montalegre	4	+2	6
9	Rebordosa	4	−1	4
10	Brito	4	−4	3
11	Ponte da Barca	4	−4	3
12	Maria da Fonte	4	−5	3
13	Maia Lidador	4	−3	1
14	Vinhais	4	−9	0