Os Limianos v Celoricense prediction · Campeonato de Portugal Prio

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Os LimianosDrawCeloricense

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Os Limianos 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Os Limianos are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Os Limianos 42%, draw 28%, Celoricense 30%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Os Limianos v CeloricenseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Os Limianos win42%

Draw28%

Celoricense win30%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup A · matchday 6

VenueCampo Cruzeiro

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Os Limianos

Celoricense

7Days since last match14

Last match: 18 Oct · Taça de Portugal

Last match: 11 Oct · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Os Limianos	5	+4	11
8	Celoricense	5	+1	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · os limianos winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Os Limianos a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Os Limianos v Celoricense~~1.29 – 1.05

~~Form · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A this season · since 16 Aug~~W3 D2 L0 · W2 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 11 v 8~~3 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Os Limianos win	42%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Celoricense win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Os Limianos or draw	70%	–	–
Os Limianos clean sheet	35%	–	–
Celoricense clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 10.2 9.9 5.3 1 12.2 13.1 6.7 2.4 2 8.0 8.2 4.3 3 3.5 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Os Limianos down, Celoricense across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 861 Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.7% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Os Limianos at home: 2.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Celoricense away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Os Limianos, 1.05 for Celoricense. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CEL 1–1 OSL · OSL 2–1 CEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A this season · since 16 Aug

OS LIMIANOS

WDWDW3–1 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 2–1

CELORICENSE

DWWLD0–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chaves II	5	+5	12
2	SC Braga B	5	+6	11
3	Os Limianos	5	+4	11
4	Bragança	5	+3	10
5	Tirsense	5	+4	9
6	Montalegre	5	+4	9
7	Vila Meã	5	+4	8
8	Celoricense	5	+1	8
9	Rebordosa	5	−1	5
10	Ponte da Barca	5	−4	4
11	Maria da Fonte	5	−5	4
12	Brito	5	−8	3
13	Maia Lidador	5	−3	2
14	Vinhais	5	−10	0