Maria da Fonte v Bragança prediction · Campeonato de Portugal Prio

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Maria da FonteDrawBragança

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Bragança 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bragança are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Maria da Fonte 31%, draw 27%, Bragança 43%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Maria da Fonte v BragançaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Maria da Fonte win31%

Draw27%

Bragança win43%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup A · matchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Maria da Fonte

Bragança

14Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A

Last match: 17 Oct · Taça de Portugal

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Bragança	5	+3	10
11	Maria da Fonte	5	−5	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bragança winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Bragança a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Maria da Fonte v Bragança~~1.14 – 1.40

~~Form · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A this season · since 16 Aug~~W1 D1 L3 · W3 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 10~~11 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Maria da Fonte win	31%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Bragança win	43%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Maria da Fonte or draw	57%	–	–
Maria da Fonte clean sheet	25%	–	–
Bragança clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 8.5 10.8 7.6 3.6 1 8.8 12.6 8.5 4.0 2 5.2 7.0 4.8 2.3 3 2.0 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Maria da Fonte down, Bragança across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 861 Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.7% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Maria da Fonte at home: 1.33 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Bragança away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for Maria da Fonte, 1.40 for Bragança. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BRA 1–3 MAR · MAR 0–0 BRA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A this season · since 16 Aug

MARIA DA FONTE

WLLLD1–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 1–1

BRAGANÇA

WDWWL3–2 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chaves II	5	+5	12
2	SC Braga B	5	+6	11
3	Os Limianos	5	+4	11
4	Bragança	5	+3	10
5	Tirsense	5	+4	9
6	Montalegre	5	+4	9
7	Vila Meã	5	+4	8
8	Celoricense	5	+1	8
9	Rebordosa	5	−1	5
10	Ponte da Barca	5	−4	4
11	Maria da Fonte	5	−5	4
12	Brito	5	−8	3
13	Maia Lidador	5	−3	2
14	Vinhais	5	−10	0