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Maia Lidador v Maria da Fonte

Maia Lidador

1–1Full time

Maria da Fonte

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Maia Lidador 1–1 Maria da Fonte MAIA LIDADOR WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Maia Lidador win~~50%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.854

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.810

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Maia Lidador win at 50%.
1′Much as we predicted: Maia Lidador was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–26–23
4′Maia Lidador find the net on 3′. 1–0. 1–0 · 77–16–8
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Maia Lidador win: 50% at kick-off, 77% now
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Maia Lidador win: 50% at kick-off, 51% now
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Maia Lidador win: 50% at kick-off, 51% now
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Maia Lidador win: 50% at kick-off, 77% now
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Maia Lidador win: 50% at kick-off, 77% now
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Maia Lidador win: 50% at kick-off, 51% now
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Maia Lidador win: 50% at kick-off, 77% now
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Maia Lidador win: 50% at kick-off, 51% now
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Maia Lidador win: 50% at kick-off, 77% now
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Maia Lidador win: 50% at kick-off, 77% now
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Maia Lidador win: 50% at kick-off, 51% now
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Maia Lidador win: 50% at kick-off, 77% now
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Maia Lidador win: 50% at kick-off, 51% now
18′Maia Lidador find the net on 3′. 1–0. 1–0 · 77–16–7
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Maia Lidador win: 50% at kick-off, 51% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Maia Lidador win: 50% at kick-off, 77% now
21′We published Maia Lidador at 50%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–16–7
36′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 78–17–5
37′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 78–17–5
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Maia Lidador 1–1 Maria da Fonte
45′HALF-TIME Maia Lidador 1–1 Maria da Fonte
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Maia Lidador win: 50% at kick-off, 78% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 3' Maia Lidador 1–1 Maria da Fonte
46′SECOND HALF Maia Lidador 1–1 Maria da Fonte
90′⚽ GOAL · 3' Maia Lidador 1–1 Maria da Fonte
90′⚽ GOAL · 45' Maia Lidador 1–1 Maria da Fonte
FTFULL TIME Maia Lidador 1–1 Maria da Fonte
FTMaia Lidador 1–1 Maria da Fonte · Maia Lidador win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Maia Lidador win50%

Draw26%

Maria da Fonte win24%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Maia Lidador

Maria da Fonte

28Days since last match28

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Maria da Fonte	4	−5	3
13	Maia Lidador	4	−3	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · maia lidador winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

50% The market48%

Us50%

~~Market~~48%

We make Maia Lidador a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · maia lidador win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Maia Lidador win	50%	48%	+2
Draw	26%	28%	−2
Maria da Fonte win	24%	24%	0
Over 2.5 goals	44%	47%	−3
Both teams to score	46%	50%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	70%	70%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	23%	27%	−4
Maia Lidador or draw	76%	76%	0
Maia Lidador clean sheet	40%	–	–
Maria da Fonte clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.0%

0123450 9.3 8.2 3.9 1 13.0 12.0 5.6 2 9.6 8.8 4.1 3 4.9 4.5 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Maia Lidador down, Maria da Fonte across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 854 Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Maia Lidador at home: 0.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 2). Maria da Fonte away: 0.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Maia Lidador, 0.94 for Maria da Fonte. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A

MAIA LIDADOR

LLLD1–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–1

MARIA DA FONTE

LLWLLL2–6 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bragança	4	+5	10
2	Tirsense	4	+5	9
3	Chaves II	4	+1	9
4	SC Braga B	4	+5	8
5	Os Limianos	4	+3	8
6	Vila Meã	4	+4	7
7	Celoricense	4	+1	7
8	Montalegre	4	+2	6
9	Rebordosa	4	−1	4
10	Brito	4	−4	3
11	Ponte da Barca	4	−4	3
12	Maria da Fonte	4	−5	3
13	Maia Lidador	4	−3	1
14	Vinhais	4	−9	0