Chaves II v SC Braga B prediction · Campeonato de Portugal Prio

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Chaves IIDrawSC Braga B

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Chaves II 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chaves II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chaves II 47%, draw 25%, SC Braga B 27%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Chaves II v SC Braga BBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Chaves II win47%

Draw25%

SC Braga B win27%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup A · matchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chaves II

SC Braga B

14Days since last match14

Last match: 11 Oct · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chaves ii winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Chaves II a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chaves II v SC Braga B~~1.61 – 1.15

~~Form · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A this season · since 16 Aug~~W4 D0 L1 · W3 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 12 v 11~~1 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chaves II win	47%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
SC Braga B win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Chaves II or draw	73%	–	–
Chaves II clean sheet	32%	–	–
SC Braga B clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.9 7.2 4.3 1 10.0 11.8 6.6 2.6 2 8.1 9.1 5.2 2.0 3 4.4 4.9 2.8 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chaves II down, SC Braga B across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 861 Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.7% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Chaves II at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). SC Braga B away: 2.00 scored, 0.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Chaves II, 1.15 for SC Braga B. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A this season · since 16 Aug

CHAVES II

LWWWW1–3 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 4–0

SC BRAGA B

WDDWW2–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 4–0 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chaves II	5	+5	12
2	SC Braga B	5	+6	11
3	Os Limianos	5	+4	11
4	Bragança	5	+3	10
5	Tirsense	5	+4	9
6	Montalegre	5	+4	9
7	Vila Meã	5	+4	8
8	Celoricense	5	+1	8
9	Rebordosa	5	−1	5
10	Ponte da Barca	5	−4	4
11	Maria da Fonte	5	−5	4
12	Brito	5	−8	3
13	Maia Lidador	5	−3	2
14	Vinhais	5	−10	0