Celoricense v Vila Meã prediction · Campeonato de Portugal Prio

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Celoricense 0–0 Vila Meã CELORICENSE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Celoricense win~~44%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.787

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.743

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 4 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Celoricense win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Celoricense was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–28–28
1′KICK-OFF Celoricense v Vila Meã
4′Much as we predicted: Celoricense was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–29–28
45′HALF-TIME Celoricense 0–0 Vila Meã
46′SECOND HALF Celoricense 0–0 Vila Meã
FTFULL TIME Celoricense 0–0 Vila Meã
FTCeloricense 0–0 Vila Meã · Celoricense win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Celoricense win44%

Draw28%

Vila Meã win28%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Celoricense

Vila Meã

28Days since last match28

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Vila Meã	4	+4	7
7	Celoricense	4	+1	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · celoricense winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

44% The market42%

Us44%

~~Market~~42%

We make Celoricense a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · celoricense win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Celoricense win	44%	42%	+2
Draw	28%	30%	−2
Vila Meã win	28%	28%	0
Over 2.5 goals	40%	43%	−3
Both teams to score	45%	49%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	66%	68%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	20%	24%	−4
Celoricense or draw	72%	72%	0
Celoricense clean sheet	38%	–	–
Vila Meã clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.3%

0123450 10.8 10.0 4.9 1 13.3 12.8 6.1 2.1 2 8.6 8.1 4.0 3 3.8 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Celoricense down, Vila Meã across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 854 Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Celoricense at home: 0.50 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Vila Meã away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Celoricense, 0.98 for Vila Meã. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A

CELORICENSE

DWDWWL0–0 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–1

VILA MEÃ

WLWDLW2–1 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bragança	4	+5	10
2	Tirsense	4	+5	9
3	Chaves II	4	+1	9
4	SC Braga B	4	+5	8
5	Os Limianos	4	+3	8
6	Vila Meã	4	+4	7
7	Celoricense	4	+1	7
8	Montalegre	4	+2	6
9	Rebordosa	4	−1	4
10	Brito	4	−4	3
11	Ponte da Barca	4	−4	3
12	Maria da Fonte	4	−5	3
13	Maia Lidador	4	−3	1
14	Vinhais	4	−9	0