Brito v Chaves II prediction · Campeonato de Portugal Prio

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Brito 0–4 Chaves II BRITO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Brito win~~43%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.731

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.766

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Brito win at 43%.
4′Little has changed for our model: Brito 43% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–27–31
7′Little has changed for our model: Brito 43% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–28–30
23′Chaves II find the net on 22′. 0–1. 0–1 · 16–24–61
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Brito win: 43% at kick-off, 40% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Brito win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Chaves II win 29%)
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Brito win: 43% at kick-off, 16% now
25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Chaves II win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Brito win 16%)
39′We said Brito at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 0–1 · 12–24–64
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Brito win: 43% at kick-off, 12% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Brito win: 43% at kick-off, 16% now
40′We said Brito at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–24–65
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Brito win: 43% at kick-off, 16% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Brito win: 43% at kick-off, 11% now
45′HALF-TIME Brito 0–1 Chaves II
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Brito win: 43% at kick-off, 12% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Chaves II win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Brito win 12%)
45′⚽ GOAL · 22' Brito 0–1 Chaves II
46′SECOND HALF Brito 0–1 Chaves II
64′⚽ GOAL · 63' Brito 0–2 Chaves II
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Brito 0–3 Chaves II
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' Brito 0–4 Chaves II
FTFULL TIME Brito 0–4 Chaves II
FTBrito 0–4 Chaves II · Brito win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Brito win43%

Draw26%

Chaves II win31%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

VenueParque de Jogos do Brito SC

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Brito

Chaves II

28Days since last match28

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Chaves II	4	+1	9
10	Brito	4	−4	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · brito winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

43% The market42%

Us43%

~~Market~~42%

We make Brito a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · brito win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Brito win	43%	42%	+1
Draw	26%	29%	−3
Chaves II win	31%	29%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	47%	48%	0
Both teams to score	51%	53%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	72%	71%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	26%	28%	−2
Brito or draw	69%	71%	−2
Brito clean sheet	32%	–	–
Chaves II clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 8.0 8.8 5.1 2.0 1 10.8 12.4 7.1 2.8 2 7.6 8.6 5.0 3 3.6 4.1 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Brito down, Chaves II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 854 Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 0.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Brito at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Chaves II away: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Brito, 1.16 for Chaves II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~0.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CHA 0–1 BRI · BRI 0–0 CHA

Form · last six in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A

BRITO

WWLLWL3–2 · 2–0 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–2

CHAVES II

DDLWWW1–1 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bragança	4	+5	10
2	Tirsense	4	+5	9
3	Chaves II	4	+1	9
4	SC Braga B	4	+5	8
5	Os Limianos	4	+3	8
6	Vila Meã	4	+4	7
7	Celoricense	4	+1	7
8	Montalegre	4	+2	6
9	Rebordosa	4	−1	4
10	Brito	4	−4	3
11	Ponte da Barca	4	−4	3
12	Maria da Fonte	4	−5	3
13	Maia Lidador	4	−3	1
14	Vinhais	4	−9	0