Bragança v Montalegre prediction · Campeonato de Portugal Prio

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Bragança 0–2 Montalegre BRAGANÇA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bragança win~~51%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.924

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.958

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bragança win at 51%.
1′KICK-OFF Bragança v Montalegre
2′Little has changed for our model: Bragança 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–26–23
3′Little has changed for our model: Bragança 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–27–23
45′HALF-TIME Bragança 0–0 Montalegre
46′SECOND HALF Bragança 0–0 Montalegre
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Bragança 0–1 Montalegre
90′⚽ GOAL · 49' Bragança 0–1 Montalegre
90′⚽ GOAL · 94' Bragança 0–2 Montalegre
FTFULL TIME Bragança 0–2 Montalegre
FTBragança 0–2 Montalegre · Bragança win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Bragança win51%

Draw26%

Montalegre win23%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Bragança

Montalegre

28Days since last match28

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bragança	4	+5	10
8	Montalegre	4	+2	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bragança winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

51% The market51%

Us51%

~~Market~~51%

We make Bragança a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · bragança win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bragança win	51%	51%	0
Draw	26%	28%	−2
Montalegre win	23%	21%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	44%	40%	+3
Both teams to score	46%	44%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	69%	65%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	23%	22%	+1
Bragança or draw	77%	79%	−2
Bragança clean sheet	41%	–	–
Montalegre clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.3%

0123450 9.2 8.1 3.7 1 13.3 12.0 5.5 2 10.0 8.9 4.1 3 5.1 4.6 2.1 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bragança down, Montalegre across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 854 Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Bragança at home: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Montalegre away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Bragança, 0.91 for Montalegre. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A

BRAGANÇA

DWWDWW1–1 · 3–0 · 3–2 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 3–0

MONTALEGRE

LLDWDD0–1 · 0–4 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bragança	4	+5	10
2	Tirsense	4	+5	9
3	Chaves II	4	+1	9
4	SC Braga B	4	+5	8
5	Os Limianos	4	+3	8
6	Vila Meã	4	+4	7
7	Celoricense	4	+1	7
8	Montalegre	4	+2	6
9	Rebordosa	4	−1	4
10	Brito	4	−4	3
11	Ponte da Barca	4	−4	3
12	Maria da Fonte	4	−5	3
13	Maia Lidador	4	−3	1
14	Vinhais	4	−9	0