Vitoria Guimaraes W v Valadares Gaia W prediction · 1a Divisão

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Vitoria Guimaraes W 0–2 Valadares Gaia W VALADARES GAIA W WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Valadares Gaia W win~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.590

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Valadares Gaia W are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vitoria Guimaraes W 31%, draw 32%, Valadares Gaia W 37%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Vitoria Guimaraes W v Valadares Gaia WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Vitoria Guimaraes W win31%

Draw32%

Valadares Gaia W win37%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 4

VenueAcademia Vitoria SC

Line-ups

Vitoria Guimaraes W

Valadares Gaia W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vitoria Guimaraes W

Valadares Gaia W

28Days since last match21

Last match: 19 Sept · 1a Divisão - Women

Last match: 26 Sept · 1a Divisão - Women

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Valadares Gaia W	3	−2	3
8	Vitoria Guimaraes W	2	−5	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Vitoria Guimaraes W

Formation not confirmed

1 T. Sornpao

3 Gabi Zidoi

10 Betinha

13 M. Gravante

15 J. Turrentine

17 S. Wiehe

24 I. Queiroga

11 M. Silva

87 M. Gago

70 R. Dias

77 E. Errasti

Coach · –

Substitutes

30 · B. Santos

6 · P. Fernandes

16 · F. Manso-Preto

19 · M. Baleia

20 · M. Mariano

22 · L. Rafael

32 · J. Wickers

80 · M. Salgado

7 · E. Bailey

Valadares Gaia W

Formation not confirmed

31 E. Seppi

2 S. Monteiro

3 J. Silva

4 M. Mulot

7 C. Ferreira

9 K. Bullock

10 C. Ferreira

11 M. Gestera

14 G. Marashi

17 V. Marques

27 M. Nave

Coach · –

Substitutes

71 · C. Maia

5 · A. Cruz

16 · M. Chauvet

77 · I. Silva

19 · M. Florentino

Our number · valadares gaia w winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Valadares Gaia W a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.1, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vitoria Guimaraes W v Valadares Gaia W~~1.00 – 1.13

~~Form · 1a Divisão - Women this season · since 12 Sept~~W0 D0 L2 · W1 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 0 v 3~~8 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vitoria Guimaraes W win	31%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Valadares Gaia W win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	36%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	63%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
Vitoria Guimaraes W or draw	63%	–	–
Vitoria Guimaraes W clean sheet	34%	–	–
Valadares Gaia W clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 13.9%

0123450 13.9 12.4 7.5 3.0 1 10.9 13.5 7.0 2.8 2 6.0 6.3 3.5 3 2.1 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vitoria Guimaraes W down, Valadares Gaia W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 504 1a Divisão - Women matches up to 27 Sep 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1a Divisão - Women matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vitoria Guimaraes W at home: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Valadares Gaia W away: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.00 goals for Vitoria Guimaraes W, 1.13 for Valadares Gaia W. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~VIT 1–1 VAL · VAL 1–1 VIT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 1a Divisão - Women this season · since 12 Sept

VITORIA GUIMARAES W

LL0–2 · 0–3

VALADARES GAIA W

LLW1–3 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Torreense W	3	+14	9
2	Sporting CP W	3	+7	7
3	SL Benfica W	2	+5	6
4	Sporting Braga W	3	+5	5
5	Porto W	3	+2	5
6	Racing Power W	3	−2	4
7	Valadares Gaia W	3	−2	3
8	Vitoria Guimaraes W	2	−5	0
9	Rio Ave W	3	−6	0
10	Marítimo W	3	−18	0