Sporting CP W v Torreense W prediction · 1a Divisão

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 01:30

Sporting CP W 3–2 Torreense W SPORTING CP W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sporting CP W win~~50%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.368

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.572

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sporting CP W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sporting CP W 50%, draw 25%, Torreense W 24%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Sporting CP W v Torreense WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sporting CP W win50%

Draw25%

Torreense W win24%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 4

VenueCGD Stadium Aurelio Pereira

Line-ups

Sporting CP W

Torreense W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sporting CP W

Torreense W

18Days since last match18

Last match: 30 Sept · UEFA Europa Cup - Women

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Torreense W	3	+14	9
3	Sporting CP W	3	+7	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sporting CP W

Formation not confirmed

99 C. Coster

23 E. Ramirez

41 A. Barron

6 G. Eaton-Collins

16 Filipinha

7 J. Martins

15 B. Cameirao

8 R. Grant

20 C. Armengol

9 T. Encarnacao

78 M. O'Donnel

Coach · Micael Sequeira

Substitutes

33 · J. Wozniak

26 · M. Cherry

28 · M. Ferreira

77 · T. F. Abreu Rodrigues

39 · A. Bravo

11 · B. Perez

13 · C. Santiago

52 · A. Dias

10 · N. Besugo

Torreense W

Formation not confirmed

66 R. Costa

14 N. Mendoza

4 E. Tonkin

68 B. Lopes

33 C. Pimenta

21 G. Konst

77 R. Ferreira

88 N. S. Nunes

16 C. Pereira

6 M. Hayes

9 Janaina Weimer

Coach · –

Substitutes

55 · C. Joia

3 · M. Costa

2 · B. Ramos

10 · B. Latorre

7 · D. Rodriguez

18 · V. Cid

5 · S. Hoban

8 · Rafaela Rufino

11 · D. Silva

Our number · sporting cp w winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 04:12 · locked at kick-off

50% The market38%

Us50%

~~Market~~38%

We make Sporting CP W a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sporting CP W v Torreense W~~1.73 – 1.12

~~Form · 1a Divisão - Women this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D1 L0 · W3 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 7 v 9~~3 v 1

~~The market · Sporting CP W win~~38% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sporting CP W win The market, margin stripped

Published at 51%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sporting CP W win	50%	38%	+12
Draw	25%	28%	−3
Torreense W win	24%	33%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	53%	47%	+6
Both teams to score	54%	52%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	77%	70%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	32%	29%	+3
Sporting CP W or draw	76%	67%	+9
Sporting CP W clean sheet	34%	–	–
Torreense W clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 7.6 6.0 3.8 1 9.4 11.4 5.9 2.3 2 8.5 8.9 4.9 3 5.0 5.3 2.9 4 2.3 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sporting CP W down, Torreense W across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 507 1a Divisão - Women matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1a Divisão - Women matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sporting CP W at home: 2.17 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Torreense W away: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.73 goals for Sporting CP W, 1.12 for Torreense W. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~2 of 8

~~Last meetings~~TOR 2–0 SPO · SPO 2–3 TOR · SPO 1–2 TOR · TOR 0–2 SPO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 1a Divisão - Women this season · since 12 Sept

SPORTING CP W

WWD2–0 · 5–0 · 0–0

TORREENSE W

WWW3–0 · 3–0 · 8–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Torreense W	3	+14	9
2	Sporting Braga W	4	+7	8
3	Sporting CP W	3	+7	7
4	SL Benfica W	2	+5	6
5	Porto W	4	+2	6
6	Valadares Gaia W	4	0	6
7	Racing Power W	4	−4	4
8	Rio Ave W	4	−6	1
9	Vitoria Guimaraes W	3	−7	0
10	Marítimo W	3	−18	0