Rio Ave W v Porto W prediction · 1a Divisão

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Rio Ave W 1–1 Porto W PORTO W WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Porto W win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.673

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Porto W are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rio Ave W 28%, draw 33%, Porto W 38%. Over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on Rio Ave W v Porto WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Rio Ave W win28%

Draw33%

Porto W win38%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 4

Line-ups

Rio Ave W

Porto W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rio Ave W

Porto W

21Days since last match20

Last match: 26 Sept · 1a Divisão - Women

Last match: 27 Sept · 1a Divisão - Women

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Porto W	3	+2	5
9	Rio Ave W	3	−6	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Rio Ave W

Formation not confirmed

14 G. Crenshaw

5 B. Azevedo

12 R. Pereira

4 I. Alkisi

6 M. Wolfbauer

55 A. Ribeiro

15 A. Assucena

2 R. Fetty

23 R. Almeida

21 N. Selimhodzic

24 M. Anthony

Coach · –

Substitutes

99 · I. Esgueirao

20 · S. Almeida

27 · I. Barge

10 · B. Conduto

17 · M. Rodrigues

8 · M. Nunes

31 · T. Pereira

7 · V. Coelho

22 · C. Chiper

Porto W

Formation not confirmed

1 C. Brendle

6 L. Almeida

17 M. Azevedo

30 D. Santos

5 A. Reto

18 F. Pinto

12 E. Turner

8 M. Stone

10 M. Negrao

9 A. Kerr

7 M. Ferreira

Coach · –

Substitutes

33 · B. Marques

20 · I. Nogueira

24 · V. Duarte

4 · L. Golob

14 · A. Da Costa

11 · A. Teles

23 · F. Sisse

15 · Soraya Franca

19 · L. Jamai

Our number · porto w winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Porto W a 38% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.1, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rio Ave W v Porto W~~0.87 – 1.07

~~Form · 1a Divisão - Women this season · since 12 Sept~~W0 D0 L3 · W1 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 0 v 5~~9 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rio Ave W win	28%	–	–
Draw	33%	–	–
Porto W win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	31%	–	–
Both teams to score	37%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	57%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	14%	–	–
Rio Ave W or draw	62%	–	–
Rio Ave W clean sheet	36%	–	–
Porto W clean sheet	44%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.9%

0123450 16.9 14.3 8.1 3.1 1 11.3 13.1 6.4 2.4 2 5.5 5.4 2.9 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rio Ave W down, Porto W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 504 1a Divisão - Women matches up to 27 Sep 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1a Divisão - Women matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Rio Ave W at home: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Porto W away: 3.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 1).

What the model expects

0.87 goals for Rio Ave W, 1.07 for Porto W. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 1a Divisão - Women this season · since 12 Sept

RIO AVE W

LLL0–3 · 0–2 · 0–1

PORTO W

WDD3–1 · 1–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Torreense W	3	+14	9
2	Sporting CP W	3	+7	7
3	SL Benfica W	2	+5	6
4	Sporting Braga W	3	+5	5
5	Porto W	3	+2	5
6	Racing Power W	3	−2	4
7	Valadares Gaia W	3	−2	3
8	Vitoria Guimaraes W	2	−5	0
9	Rio Ave W	3	−6	0
10	Marítimo W	3	−18	0