Wisłoka Dębica v Naprzód prediction · III Liga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42

Wisłoka Dębica 4–0 Naprzód WISŁOKA DĘBICA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Wisłoka Dębica win~~43%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.498

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.514

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Wisłoka Dębica win at 43%.
2′Much as we predicted: Wisłoka Dębica was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–26–32
2′KICK-OFF Wisłoka Dębica v Naprzód
3′Wisłoka Dębica find the net on 2′. 1–0. 1–0 · 68–18–13
3′We published Wisłoka Dębica at 43%. Our model now makes it 68%. 1–0 · 68–18–13
3′⚽ GOAL · 2' Wisłoka Dębica 1–0 Naprzód
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Wisłoka Dębica win: 43% at kick-off, 68% now
19′We published Wisłoka Dębica at 43%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–19–11
31′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 71–20–9
31′A goal for Wisłoka Dębica on 31′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 91–7–2
31′We published Wisłoka Dębica at 43%. Our model now makes it 91%. 2–0 · 91–7–2
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Wisłoka Dębica 2–0 Naprzód
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Wisłoka Dębica win: 43% at kick-off, 91% now
44′Wisłoka Dębica score on 44′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
44′We published Wisłoka Dębica at 43%. Our model now makes it 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
44′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 99–1–0
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Wisłoka Dębica win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Wisłoka Dębica 3–0 Naprzód
45′Wisłoka Dębica find the net on 45′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
45′We published Wisłoka Dębica at 43%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–0 · 100–0–0
45′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
45′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' Wisłoka Dębica 4–0 Naprzód
45′HALF-TIME Wisłoka Dębica 4–0 Naprzód
46′SECOND HALF Wisłoka Dębica 4–0 Naprzód
FTFULL TIME Wisłoka Dębica 4–0 Naprzód
FTWisłoka Dębica 4–0 Naprzód · Wisłoka Dębica win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Wisłoka Dębica are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Wisłoka Dębica 43%, draw 26%, Naprzód 32%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Wisłoka Dębica v NaprzódBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Wisłoka Dębica win43%

Draw26%

Naprzód win32%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup IV · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Wisłoka Dębica

Naprzód

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · III Liga - Group 4

Last match: 11 Oct · III Liga - Group 4

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Naprzód	12	+7	23
4	Wisłoka Dębica	12	+3	23

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · wisłoka dębica winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

43% The market41%

Us43%

~~Market~~41%

We make Wisłoka Dębica a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Wisłoka Dębica v Naprzód~~1.46 – 1.22

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 4 this season · since 5 Sept~~W5 D1 L0 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 23 v 23~~4 v 3

~~The market · Wisłoka Dębica win~~41% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Wisłoka Dębica win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Wisłoka Dębica win	43%	41%	+2
Draw	26%	28%	−2
Naprzód win	32%	31%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	50%	55%	−5
Both teams to score	53%	59%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	74%	77%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	28%	34%	−6
Wisłoka Dębica or draw	68%	69%	−1
Wisłoka Dębica clean sheet	30%	–	–
Naprzód clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.3 8.4 5.1 2.1 1 10.0 12.1 7.3 3.0 2 7.3 8.6 5.3 2.2 3 3.6 4.3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Wisłoka Dębica down, Naprzód across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,620 III Liga - Group 4 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.5% of games this season, across 108 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Wisłoka Dębica at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Naprzód away: 2.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for Wisłoka Dębica, 1.22 for Naprzód. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~WIS 0–1 NAP · NAP 3–3 WIS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 4 this season · since 5 Sept

WISŁOKA DĘBICA

WWWWWD1–0 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–0

NAPRZÓD

DWWWWW2–2 · 4–2 · 5–2 · 4–1 · 3–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chełmianka Chełm	12	+14	30
2	KSZO 1929	12	+12	23
3	Naprzód	12	+7	23
4	Wisłoka Dębica	12	+3	23
5	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	12	+7	20
6	Czarni Połaniec	12	+1	20
7	Jarosław	12	+6	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	12	+1	17
9	Wisła Kraków II	12	−2	16
10	KS Wieczysta Krakow II	13	−3	15
11	Korona Kielce II	12	0	14
12	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	12	−4	14
13	Busko-Zdroj	12	−9	14
14	Sokół Kolb.	12	−1	13
15	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	12	−7	12
16	Star Starachowice	12	−5	11
17	Moravia Morawica	13	−10	9
18	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	12	−10	8