Home › Football › III Liga - Group 4 › Wiślanie Jaśkowice v Star Starachowice

Wiślanie Jaśkowice v Star Starachowice

Wiślanie Jaśkowice

1–2Full time

Star Starachowice

III Liga - Group 4 · FRI 23 OCT

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:01

Wiślanie Jaśkowice 1–2 Star Starachowice WIŚLANIE JAŚKOWICE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Wiślanie Jaśkowice win~~40%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.670

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.876

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Wiślanie Jaśkowice win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Wiślanie Jaśkowice was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–26–34
1′KICK-OFF Wiślanie Jaśkowice v Star Starachowice
13′Star Starachowice score on 12′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 17–22–61
13′We said Wiślanie Jaśkowice at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–22–61
13′⚽ GOAL · 12' Wiślanie Jaśkowice 0–1 Star Starachowice
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Wiślanie Jaśkowice win: 40% at kick-off, 17% now
13′THE CALL SWINGS · 13' Star Starachowice win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Wiślanie Jaśkowice win 39%)
25′We said Wiślanie Jaśkowice at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–23–63
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 13–23–64
36′Wiślanie Jaśkowice find the net on 35′. 1–1. 1–1 · 35–35–30
36′⚽ GOAL · 35' Wiślanie Jaśkowice 1–1 Star Starachowice
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Wiślanie Jaśkowice win: 40% at kick-off, 35% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Star Starachowice win 65%)
45′HALF-TIME Wiślanie Jaśkowice 1–1 Star Starachowice
46′SECOND HALF Wiślanie Jaśkowice 1–1 Star Starachowice
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Wiślanie Jaśkowice win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
57′We said Wiślanie Jaśkowice at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 28–47–25
65′A goal for Star Starachowice on 65′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 4–20–76
65′We said Wiślanie Jaśkowice at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–20–76
65′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 4–20–76
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Wiślanie Jaśkowice 1–2 Star Starachowice
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Wiślanie Jaśkowice win: 40% at kick-off, 4% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Star Starachowice win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 53%)
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Wiślanie Jaśkowice win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
FTFULL TIME Wiślanie Jaśkowice 1–2 Star Starachowice
FTWiślanie Jaśkowice 1–2 Star Starachowice · Wiślanie Jaśkowice win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Wiślanie Jaśkowice are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Wiślanie Jaśkowice 40%, draw 26%, Star Starachowice 34%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Wiślanie Jaśkowice v Star StarachowiceBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Wiślanie Jaśkowice win40%

Draw26%

Star Starachowice win34%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 17:30

RoundGroup IV · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Wiślanie Jaśkowice

Star Starachowice

6Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · III Liga - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	13	+7	21
13	Star Starachowice	13	−2	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · wiślanie jaśkowice winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 00:20 · locked at kick-off

40% The market50%

Us40%

~~Market~~50%

We make Wiślanie Jaśkowice a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Wiślanie Jaśkowice v Star Starachowice~~1.41 – 1.27

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 4 this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 21 v 14~~5 v 13

~~The market · Wiślanie Jaśkowice win~~50% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Wiślanie Jaśkowice win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Wiślanie Jaśkowice win	40%	50%	−10
Draw	26%	25%	+1
Star Starachowice win	34%	25%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	50%	58%	−8
Both teams to score	54%	59%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	74%	79%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	28%	37%	−9
Wiślanie Jaśkowice or draw	66%	75%	−9
Wiślanie Jaśkowice clean sheet	29%	–	–
Star Starachowice clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.2 8.7 5.5 2.4 1 9.7 12.2 7.6 3.2 2 6.8 8.4 5.3 2.3 3 3.3 4.0 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Wiślanie Jaśkowice down, Star Starachowice across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,629 III Liga - Group 4 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.4% of games this season, across 117 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.17 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Wiślanie Jaśkowice at home: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Star Starachowice away: 0.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Wiślanie Jaśkowice, 1.27 for Star Starachowice. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.17

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~STA 2–0 WIS · WIS 1–1 STA · STA 1–1 WIS · WIS 1–1 STA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 4 this season · since 12 Sept

WIŚLANIE JAŚKOWICE

WDLLWD3–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 1–1

STAR STARACHOWICE

LDWDLW2–3 · 0–0 · 4–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chełmianka Chełm	13	+14	31
2	KSZO 1929	13	+14	26
3	Wisłoka Dębica	13	+7	26
4	Naprzód	13	+3	23
5	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	13	+7	21
6	Czarni Połaniec	13	+1	21
7	Hetman Zamosc	13	+3	20
8	Jarosław	13	+4	17
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	13	0	17
10	Sokół Kolb.	13	0	16
11	Wisła Kraków II	13	−3	16
12	KS Wieczysta Krakow II	13	−3	15
13	Star Starachowice	13	−2	14
14	Korona Kielce II	13	−3	14
15	Busko-Zdroj	13	−11	14
16	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	13	−7	13
17	Moravia Morawica	13	−10	9
18	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	13	−14	8