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Wiślanie Jaśkowice v Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Wiślanie Jaśkowice

4–1Full time

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

III Liga - Group 4 · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 20:01

Wiślanie Jaśkowice 4–1 Siarka Tarnobrzeg WIŚLANIE JAŚKOWICE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Wiślanie Jaśkowice win~~38%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.593

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.431

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay0 notes · 5 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Wiślanie Jaśkowice win at 38%.
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Wiślanie Jaśkowice win: 38% at kick-off, 86% now
45′HALF-TIME Wiślanie Jaśkowice 3–0 Siarka Tarnobrzeg
46′SECOND HALF Wiślanie Jaśkowice 3–0 Siarka Tarnobrzeg
57′⚽ GOAL · 51' Wiślanie Jaśkowice 3–1 Siarka Tarnobrzeg · K. Jozefiak
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Wiślanie Jaśkowice 4–1 Siarka Tarnobrzeg
FTWiślanie Jaśkowice 4–1 Siarka Tarnobrzeg · Wiślanie Jaśkowice win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Wiślanie Jaśkowice win38%

Draw25%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg win37%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 17:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · wiślanie jaśkowice winPublished 9 Oct 17:35

38% The market46%

Us38%

~~Market~~46%

We make Wiślanie Jaśkowice a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · wiślanie jaśkowice win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 53% to 46% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Wiślanie Jaśkowice win	38%	46%	−9
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Siarka Tarnobrzeg win	37%	28%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	54%	57%	−3
Both teams to score	57%	60%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	77%	79%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	32%	36%	−4
Wiślanie Jaśkowice or draw	63%	72%	−9
Wiślanie Jaśkowice clean sheet	25%	–	–
Siarka Tarnobrzeg clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.2 8.3 5.9 2.8 1 8.3 11.6 8.1 3.9 2 5.9 8.1 5.7 2.8 3 2.8 3.9 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Wiślanie Jaśkowice down, Siarka Tarnobrzeg across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,611 III Liga - Group 4 matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

III Liga - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.6% of games this season, across 99 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Wiślanie Jaśkowice at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Siarka Tarnobrzeg away: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Wiślanie Jaśkowice, 1.42 for Siarka Tarnobrzeg. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~WIS 2–1 SIA · SIA 1–3 WIS · SIA 9–0 WIS · WIS 3–1 SIA

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 4

WIŚLANIE JAŚKOWICE

LLWDLL0–1 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–1

SIARKA TARNOBRZEG

WWDWLL1–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–4 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chełmianka Chełm	11	+13	27
2	Wisłoka Dębica	11	+3	22
3	KSZO 1929	11	+7	20
4	Naprzód	11	+6	20
5	Czarni Połaniec	11	+2	20
6	Jarosław	11	+7	17
7	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	11	+4	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	11	0	14
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	11	−1	14
10	Busko-Zdroj	11	−4	14
11	Sokół Kolb.	11	0	13
12	Wisła Kraków II	11	−3	13
13	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	11	−3	12
14	Korona Kielce II	11	−4	11
15	Star Starachowice	11	−4	11
16	KS Wieczysta Krakow II	11	−4	11
17	Moravia Morawica	11	−9	8
18	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	11	−10	7