Wisła Kraków II v Wisłoka Dębica prediction · III Liga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:04

Wisła Kraków II 3–1 Wisłoka Dębica WISŁA KRAKÓW II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Wisła Kraków II win~~44%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.466

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.469

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Wisła Kraków II win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Wisła Kraków II 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–26–30
1′KICK-OFF Wisła Kraków II v Wisłoka Dębica
23′A goal for Wisła Kraków II on 22′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 71–19–10
23′⚽ GOAL · 22' Wisła Kraków II 1–0 Wisłoka Dębica
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Wisła Kraków II win: 44% at kick-off, 71% now
24′We said Wisła Kraków II at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 1–0 · 71–19–10
26′Wisła Kraków II score on 25′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 91–7–2
26′We said Wisła Kraków II at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 2–0 · 91–7–2
26′⚽ GOAL · 25' Wisła Kraków II 2–0 Wisłoka Dębica
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Wisła Kraków II win: 44% at kick-off, 91% now
45′HALF-TIME Wisła Kraków II 2–0 Wisłoka Dębica
46′SECOND HALF Wisła Kraków II 2–0 Wisłoka Dębica
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Wisła Kraków II win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
52′We said Wisła Kraków II at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
54′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 2–0 · 95–4–1
82′We said Wisła Kraków II at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
83′Wisłoka Dębica find the net on 83′. 2–1. 2–1 · 92–8–0
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Wisła Kraków II 2–1 Wisłoka Dębica
84′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 93–7–0
93′A goal for Wisła Kraków II on 90′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
93′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 100–0–0
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Wisła Kraków II 3–1 Wisłoka Dębica
FTFULL TIME Wisła Kraków II 3–1 Wisłoka Dębica
FTWisła Kraków II 3–1 Wisłoka Dębica · Wisła Kraków II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Wisła Kraków II are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Wisła Kraków II 44%, draw 26%, Wisłoka Dębica 30%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Wisła Kraków II v Wisłoka DębicaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Wisła Kraków II win44%

Draw26%

Wisłoka Dębica win30%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup IV · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Wisła Kraków II

Wisłoka Dębica

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · III Liga - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Wisłoka Dębica	13	+7	26
12	Wisła Kraków II	13	−3	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · wisła kraków ii winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

44% The market44%

Us44%

~~Market~~44%

We make Wisła Kraków II a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Wisła Kraków II v Wisłoka Dębica~~1.50 – 1.19

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 4 this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 16 v 26~~12 v 3

~~The market · Wisła Kraków II win~~44% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Wisła Kraków II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Wisła Kraków II win	44%	44%	0
Draw	26%	25%	+1
Wisłoka Dębica win	30%	31%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	50%	61%	−11
Both teams to score	53%	64%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	75%	81%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	29%	41%	−12
Wisła Kraków II or draw	70%	69%	+1
Wisła Kraków II clean sheet	31%	–	–
Wisłoka Dębica clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.2 8.1 4.8 1 10.2 12.0 7.0 2.8 2 7.6 8.8 5.2 2.1 3 3.9 4.5 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Wisła Kraków II down, Wisłoka Dębica across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,630 III Liga - Group 4 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.8% of games this season, across 118 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 3.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Wisła Kraków II at home: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Wisłoka Dębica away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Wisła Kraków II, 1.19 for Wisłoka Dębica. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~Wisłoka Dębica 1–0 Wisła Kraków II · Wisła Kraków II 1–2 Wisłoka Dębica · Wisłoka Dębica 0–4 Wisła Kraków II · Wisła Kraków II 2–3 Wisłoka Dębica

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 4 this season · since 12 Sept

WISŁA KRAKÓW II

LDDLWL0–1 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 0–1

WISŁOKA DĘBICA

WWWWDW3–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chełmianka Chełm	13	+14	31
2	KSZO 1929	13	+14	26
3	Wisłoka Dębica	13	+7	26
4	Naprzód	13	+3	23
5	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	14	+6	21
6	Czarni Połaniec	13	+1	21
7	Hetman Zamosc	13	+3	20
8	Jarosław	13	+4	17
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	13	0	17
10	Star Starachowice	14	−1	17
11	Sokół Kolb.	13	0	16
12	Wisła Kraków II	13	−3	16
13	KS Wieczysta Krakow II	13	−3	15
14	Korona Kielce II	13	−3	14
15	Busko-Zdroj	13	−11	14
16	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	13	−7	13
17	Moravia Morawica	13	−10	9
18	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	13	−14	8