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Wisła Kraków II v Jarosław

Wisła Kraków II

2–1Full time

Jarosław

III Liga - Group 4 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 13:46

Wisła Kraków II 2–1 Jarosław WISŁA KRAKÓW II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Wisła Kraków II win~~48%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.415

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.515

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Wisła Kraków II win at 48%.
3′Little has changed for our model: Wisła Kraków II 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–21–32
3′KICK-OFF Wisła Kraków II v Jarosław
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Wisła Kraków II 0–1 Jarosław
26′Jarosław ahead on 24′ through G. Janiczak. 0–1. 0–1 · 23–22–56
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Wisła Kraków II win: 48% at kick-off, 23% now
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Jarosław win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Wisła Kraków II win 23%)
45′We said Wisła Kraków II at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–24–60
45′HALF-TIME Wisła Kraków II 0–1 Jarosław
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Wisła Kraków II win: 48% at kick-off, 17% now
47′SECOND HALF Wisła Kraków II 0–1 Jarosław
55′⚽ GOAL · 50' Wisła Kraków II 1–1 Jarosław · W. Szywacz
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Wisła Kraków II 2–1 Jarosław
FTFULL TIME Wisła Kraków II 2–1 Jarosław
FTWisła Kraków II 2–1 Jarosław · Wisła Kraków II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Wisła Kraków II win48%

Draw20%

Jarosław win32%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 11:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · wisła kraków ii winPublished 10 Oct 11:13

48% The market42%

Us48%

~~Market~~42%

We make Wisła Kraków II a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · wisła kraków ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Wisła Kraków II win	48%	42%	+6
Draw	20%	25%	−4
Jarosław win	32%	34%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	76%	67%	+8
Both teams to score	73%	69%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	90%	83%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	56%	48%	+8
Wisła Kraków II or draw	68%	66%	+2
Wisła Kraków II clean sheet	17%	–	–
Jarosław clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.8%

0123450 2.1 3.4 3.0 1 4.2 7.3 6.4 3.8 2 4.5 7.8 6.8 4.1 3 3.3 5.7 5.0 3.0 4 3.2 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Wisła Kraków II down, Jarosław across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,612 III Liga - Group 4 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

III Liga - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Wisła Kraków II at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Jarosław away: 1.75 scored, 2.25 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

2.22 goals for Wisła Kraków II, 1.79 for Jarosław. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 4

WISŁA KRAKÓW II

DLLDDL0–0 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 0–3

JAROSŁAW

WWLWDL3–0 · 6–2 · 1–3 · 5–2 · 2–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chełmianka Chełm	11	+13	27
2	Wisłoka Dębica	11	+3	22
3	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	12	+7	20
4	KSZO 1929	11	+7	20
5	Naprzód	11	+6	20
6	Czarni Połaniec	11	+2	20
7	Jarosław	11	+7	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	11	0	14
9	Busko-Zdroj	11	−4	14
10	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	12	−4	14
11	Sokół Kolb.	11	0	13
12	Wisła Kraków II	11	−3	13
13	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	11	−3	12
14	Korona Kielce II	11	−4	11
15	Star Starachowice	11	−4	11
16	KS Wieczysta Krakow II	11	−4	11
17	Moravia Morawica	11	−9	8
18	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	11	−10	7