Star Starachowice v Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów prediction · III Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Star StarachowiceDrawPogoń-Sokół Lubaczów

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Star Starachowice 54%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Star Starachowice are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Star Starachowice 54%, draw 23%, Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 23%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Star Starachowice v Pogoń-Sokół LubaczówBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Star Starachowice win54%

Draw23%

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów win23%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 17:30

RoundGroup IV · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Star Starachowice

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów

7Days since last match13

Last match: 23 Oct · III Liga - Group 4

Last match: 17 Oct · III Liga - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Star Starachowice	14	−1	17
18	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	13	−14	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · star starachowice winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Star Starachowice a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Star Starachowice v Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów~~1.89 – 1.14

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 4 this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 17 v 8~~11 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Star Starachowice win	54%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	58%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	–	–
Star Starachowice or draw	77%	–	–
Star Starachowice clean sheet	32%	–	–
Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 5.2 5.6 3.2 1 9.1 10.4 5.9 2.3 2 8.5 9.5 5.4 2.1 3 5.4 6.0 3.4 4 2.6 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Star Starachowice down, Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,630 III Liga - Group 4 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.8% of games this season, across 118 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Star Starachowice at home: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów away: 0.67 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.89 goals for Star Starachowice, 1.14 for Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~POG 3–1 STA · STA 1–0 POG · POG 1–3 STA · STA 1–0 POG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 4 this season · since 12 Sept

STAR STARACHOWICE

DWDLWW0–0 · 4–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 4–1 · 2–1

POGOŃ-SOKÓŁ LUBACZÓW

WLLLDL2–1 · 2–5 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chełmianka Chełm	13	+14	31
2	KSZO 1929	13	+14	26
3	Wisłoka Dębica	14	+5	26
4	Czarni Połaniec	14	+2	24
5	Naprzód	13	+3	23
6	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	14	+6	21
7	Hetman Zamosc	13	+3	20
8	Wisła Kraków II	14	−1	19
9	Jarosław	13	+4	17
10	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	13	0	17
11	Star Starachowice	14	−1	17
12	Sokół Kolb.	13	0	16
13	KS Wieczysta Krakow II	13	−3	15
14	Korona Kielce II	13	−3	14
15	Busko-Zdroj	14	−12	14
16	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	13	−7	13
17	Moravia Morawica	13	−10	9
18	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	13	−14	8