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Star Starachowice v Korona Kielce II

Star Starachowice
4–1Full time
Korona Kielce II

III Liga - Group 4 · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10
Star Starachowice 4–1 Korona Kielce II STAR STARACHOWICE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Star Starachowice win45%
The market said44%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.464
The market’s Brier score0.475

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 14 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Star Starachowice win at 45%.
  2. 2′Little has changed for our model: Star Starachowice 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–22–33
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Star Starachowice v Korona Kielce II
  4. 4′Little has changed for our model: Star Starachowice 45% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–22–33
  5. 14′Star Starachowice score on 13′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 67–18–15
  6. 14′We said Star Starachowice at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 67%. 1–0 · 67–18–15
  7. 14′⚽ GOAL · 13' Star Starachowice 1–0 Korona Kielce II
  8. 14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Star Starachowice win: 45% at kick-off, 67% now
  9. 22′Star Starachowice find the net on 22′. 2–0. 2–0 · 86–9–5
  10. 22′We said Star Starachowice at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 2–0 · 86–9–5
  11. 22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Star Starachowice 2–0 Korona Kielce II
  12. 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Star Starachowice win: 45% at kick-off, 86% now
  13. 41′The goal count is tracking the 3.6 we expected. 2–0 · 89–8–3
  14. 42′A goal for Korona Kielce II on 42′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 70–20–10
  15. 42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Star Starachowice 2–1 Korona Kielce II
  16. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Star Starachowice win: 45% at kick-off, 70% now
  17. 43′We said Star Starachowice at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 2–1 · 70–20–10
  18. 45′HALF-TIME Star Starachowice 2–1 Korona Kielce II
  19. 46′SECOND HALF Star Starachowice 2–1 Korona Kielce II
  20. 63′We said Star Starachowice at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 2–1 · 75–19–6
  21. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Star Starachowice win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
  22. 72′We said Star Starachowice at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
  23. 75′Star Starachowice score on 74′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 98–2–0
  24. 75′⚽ GOAL · 74' Star Starachowice 3–1 Korona Kielce II
  25. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Star Starachowice win: 45% at kick-off, 98% now
  26. 76′We said Star Starachowice at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 3–1 · 98–2–0
  27. 76′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.6 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 98–2–0
  28. 85′We said Star Starachowice at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  29. 90′Star Starachowice find the net on 90′. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  30. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' Star Starachowice 4–1 Korona Kielce II
  31. FTFULL TIME Star Starachowice 4–1 Korona Kielce II
  32. FTStar Starachowice 4–1 Korona Kielce II · Star Starachowice win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Star Starachowice are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Star Starachowice 45%, draw 22%, Korona Kielce II 34%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Star Starachowice v Korona Kielce IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Star Starachowice win45%
Draw22%
Korona Kielce II win34%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup IV · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Star Starachowice

Korona Kielce II

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · III Liga - Group 4

Last match: 10 Oct · III Liga - Group 4

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
11Korona Kielce II12014
16Star Starachowice12−511

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · star starachowice winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
45% The market44%
Us45%
Market44%

We make Star Starachowice a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.9–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Star Starachowice v Korona Kielce II1.94 – 1.65
Form · last six in III Liga - Group 4 this season · since 4 SeptW1 D3 L2 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 11 v 1416 v 11
The market · Star Starachowice win44% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 11 OCT 04:0517 OCT 14:12
Our probability · Star Starachowice win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Star Starachowice win45%44%+1
Draw22%25%−3
Korona Kielce II win34%31%+3
Over 2.5 goals69%63%+6
Both teams to score68%66%+2
Over 1.5 goals87%81%+6
Over 3.5 goals48%44%+4
Star Starachowice or draw66%69%−3
Star Starachowice clean sheet20%––
Korona Kielce II clean sheet15%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.9%
0123450 3.0 4.7 3.8 2.1 1 5.5 8.9 7.1 3.9 2 5.2 8.3 6.8 3.7 3 3.4 5.4 4.4 2.4 4 2.6 2.2 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Star Starachowice down, Korona Kielce II across0–5 goals a side shown (97.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023/24
Goals a meeting4.75
Over 2.54 of 4
Both scored4 of 4
Last meetingsKOR 3–2 STA · STA 3–2 KOR · STA 1–4 KOR · KOR 1–3 STA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 4 this season · since 4 Sept

STAR STARACHOWICE

DLDWDL0–0 · 2–3 · 0–0 · 4–1 · 2–2 · 1–2

KORONA KIELCE II

LDLWWW2–6 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 4–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Chełmianka Chełm12+1430
2KSZO 192912+1223
3Naprzód12+723
4Wisłoka Dębica12+323
5Wiślanie Jaśkowice12+720
6Czarni Połaniec12+120
7Jarosław12+617
8Hetman Zamosc12+117
9Wisła Kraków II12−216
10KS Wieczysta Krakow II13−315
11Korona Kielce II12014
12Siarka Tarnobrzeg12−414
13Busko-Zdroj12−914
14Sokół Kolb.12−113
15Podlasie Biała Podlaska12−712
16Star Starachowice12−511
17Moravia Morawica13−109
18Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów12−108

The competition's standings before kick-off.