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Star Starachowice v Korona Kielce II
Star Starachowice
Korona Kielce IIIII Liga - Group 4 · SAT 17 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Star Starachowice win at 45%.
- 2′Little has changed for our model: Star Starachowice 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–22–33
- 2′KICK-OFF Star Starachowice v Korona Kielce II
- 4′Little has changed for our model: Star Starachowice 45% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–22–33
- 14′Star Starachowice score on 13′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 67–18–15
- 14′We said Star Starachowice at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 67%. 1–0 · 67–18–15
- 14′⚽ GOAL · 13' Star Starachowice 1–0 Korona Kielce II
- 14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Star Starachowice win: 45% at kick-off, 67% now
- 22′Star Starachowice find the net on 22′. 2–0. 2–0 · 86–9–5
- 22′We said Star Starachowice at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 2–0 · 86–9–5
- 22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Star Starachowice 2–0 Korona Kielce II
- 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Star Starachowice win: 45% at kick-off, 86% now
- 41′The goal count is tracking the 3.6 we expected. 2–0 · 89–8–3
- 42′A goal for Korona Kielce II on 42′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 70–20–10
- 42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Star Starachowice 2–1 Korona Kielce II
- 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Star Starachowice win: 45% at kick-off, 70% now
- 43′We said Star Starachowice at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 2–1 · 70–20–10
- 45′HALF-TIME Star Starachowice 2–1 Korona Kielce II
- 46′SECOND HALF Star Starachowice 2–1 Korona Kielce II
- 63′We said Star Starachowice at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 2–1 · 75–19–6
- 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Star Starachowice win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
- 72′We said Star Starachowice at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
- 75′Star Starachowice score on 74′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 98–2–0
- 75′⚽ GOAL · 74' Star Starachowice 3–1 Korona Kielce II
- 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Star Starachowice win: 45% at kick-off, 98% now
- 76′We said Star Starachowice at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 3–1 · 98–2–0
- 76′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.6 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 98–2–0
- 85′We said Star Starachowice at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
- 90′Star Starachowice find the net on 90′. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
- 90′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' Star Starachowice 4–1 Korona Kielce II
- FTFULL TIME Star Starachowice 4–1 Korona Kielce II
- FTStar Starachowice 4–1 Korona Kielce II · Star Starachowice win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassStar Starachowice are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Star Starachowice 45%, draw 22%, Korona Kielce II 34%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 68%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Star Starachowice win45%
Korona Kielce II win34%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00
RoundGroup IV · matchday 13
Match timeline
All events
Star StarachowiceMIN
Korona Kielce IIEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Star Starachowice
Korona Kielce II
Last match: 10 Oct · III Liga - Group 4
Last match: 10 Oct · III Liga - Group 4
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Star Starachowice a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.9–1.7.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Star Starachowice win | 45% | 44% | +1 |
| Draw | 22% | 25% | −3 |
| Korona Kielce II win | 34% | 31% | +3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 63% | +6 |
| Both teams to score | 68% | 66% | +2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | 81% | +6 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48% | 44% | +4 |
| Star Starachowice or draw | 66% | 69% | −3 |
| Star Starachowice clean sheet | 20% | – | – |
| Korona Kielce II clean sheet | 15% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
4 meetings since 2023/24Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in III Liga - Group 4 this season · since 4 Sept
STAR STARACHOWICE
KORONA KIELCE II
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chełmianka Chełm | 12 | +14 | 30 |
| 2 | KSZO 1929 | 12 | +12 | 23 |
| 3 | Naprzód | 12 | +7 | 23 |
| 4 | Wisłoka Dębica | 12 | +3 | 23 |
| 5 | Wiślanie Jaśkowice | 12 | +7 | 20 |
| 6 | Czarni Połaniec | 12 | +1 | 20 |
| 7 | Jarosław | 12 | +6 | 17 |
| 8 | Hetman Zamosc | 12 | +1 | 17 |
| 9 | Wisła Kraków II | 12 | −2 | 16 |
| 10 | KS Wieczysta Krakow II | 13 | −3 | 15 |
| 11 | Korona Kielce II | 12 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 12 | −4 | 14 |
| 13 | Busko-Zdroj | 12 | −9 | 14 |
| 14 | Sokół Kolb. | 12 | −1 | 13 |
| 15 | Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 12 | −7 | 12 |
| 16 | Star Starachowice | 12 | −5 | 11 |
| 17 | Moravia Morawica | 13 | −10 | 9 |
| 18 | Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów | 12 | −10 | 8 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Chełmianka Chełm
KSZO 1929
Naprzód
Wisłoka Dębica
Wiślanie Jaśkowice
Czarni Połaniec
Jarosław
Hetman Zamosc
Wisła Kraków II
KS Wieczysta Krakow II
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Busko-Zdroj
Sokół Kolb.
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
Moravia Morawica
Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów