Sokół Kolb. v Wisła Kraków II prediction · III Liga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Sokół Kolb. 1–0 Wisła Kraków II WISŁA KRAKÓW II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Wisła Kraków II win~~39%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.640

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.627

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Wisła Kraków II win at 39%.
2′Much as we predicted: Wisła Kraków II was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 35–26–39
2′KICK-OFF Sokół Kolb. v Wisła Kraków II
26′PENALTY MISSED · 25' Sokół Kolb.
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Wisła Kraków II win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME Sokół Kolb. 0–0 Wisła Kraków II
47′SECOND HALF Sokół Kolb. 0–0 Wisła Kraków II
48′Much as we predicted: Wisła Kraków II was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 31% now. 0–0 · 28–41–31
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Wisła Kraków II win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
55′We expected about 2.7 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 26–46–28
58′We said Wisła Kraków II at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 25–48–27
64′We said Wisła Kraków II at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 22–53–24
65′Sokół Kolb. score on 65′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 76–19–4
65′We said Wisła Kraków II at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–19–4
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Sokół Kolb. 1–0 Wisła Kraków II
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Wisła Kraków II win: 39% at kick-off, 4% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Sokół Kolb. win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 19%)
FTFULL TIME Sokół Kolb. 1–0 Wisła Kraków II
FTSokół Kolb. 1–0 Wisła Kraków II · Wisła Kraków II win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Wisła Kraków II just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Sokół Kolb. 35%, draw 26%, Wisła Kraków II 39%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Sokół Kolb. v Wisła Kraków IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sokół Kolb. win35%

Draw26%

Wisła Kraków II win39%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup IV · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sokół Kolb.

Wisła Kraków II

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · III Liga - Group 4

Last match: 10 Oct · III Liga - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Wisła Kraków II	12	−2	16
14	Sokół Kolb.	12	−1	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · wisła kraków ii winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market39%

Us39%

~~Market~~39%

We make Wisła Kraków II a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sokół Kolb. v Wisła Kraków II~~1.30 – 1.38

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 4 this season · since 4 Sept~~W1 D4 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 13 v 16~~14 v 9

~~The market · Wisła Kraków II win~~39% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Wisła Kraków II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sokół Kolb. win	35%	36%	−1
Draw	26%	25%	+1
Wisła Kraków II win	39%	39%	0
Over 2.5 goals	50%	56%	−6
Both teams to score	54%	60%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	74%	77%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	28%	36%	−8
Sokół Kolb. or draw	61%	61%	0
Sokół Kolb. clean sheet	26%	–	–
Wisła Kraków II clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.2 9.5 6.6 3.1 1 8.9 12.1 8.3 3.9 2 5.8 7.8 5.3 2.5 3 2.5 3.4 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sokół Kolb. down, Wisła Kraków II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,620 III Liga - Group 4 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.5% of games this season, across 108 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sokół Kolb. at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Wisła Kraków II away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Sokół Kolb., 1.38 for Wisła Kraków II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~WIS 2–0 SOK · SOK 1–2 WIS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 4 this season · since 4 Sept

SOKÓŁ KOLB.

DDDWDL0–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 0–1

WISŁA KRAKÓW II

LLDDLW0–2 · 0–1 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chełmianka Chełm	12	+14	30
2	KSZO 1929	12	+12	23
3	Naprzód	12	+7	23
4	Wisłoka Dębica	12	+3	23
5	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	12	+7	20
6	Czarni Połaniec	12	+1	20
7	Jarosław	12	+6	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	12	+1	17
9	Wisła Kraków II	12	−2	16
10	KS Wieczysta Krakow II	13	−3	15
11	Korona Kielce II	12	0	14
12	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	12	−4	14
13	Busko-Zdroj	12	−9	14
14	Sokół Kolb.	12	−1	13
15	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	12	−7	12
16	Star Starachowice	12	−5	11
17	Moravia Morawica	13	−10	9
18	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	12	−10	8