Siarka Tarnobrzeg v Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów prediction · III Liga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 4–0 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów SIARKA TARNOBRZEG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Siarka Tarnobrzeg win~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.338

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Siarka Tarnobrzeg are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Siarka Tarnobrzeg 53%, draw 22%, Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 26%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Siarka Tarnobrzeg v Pogoń-Sokół LubaczówBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Siarka Tarnobrzeg win53%

Draw22%

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów win26%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup IV · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów

8Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · III Liga - Group 4

Last match: 10 Oct · III Liga - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	12	−4	14
18	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	12	−10	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · siarka tarnobrzeg winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Siarka Tarnobrzeg a 53% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Siarka Tarnobrzeg v Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów~~1.97 – 1.30

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 4 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 14 v 8~~11 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Siarka Tarnobrzeg win	53%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	63%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	41%	–	–
Siarka Tarnobrzeg or draw	74%	–	–
Siarka Tarnobrzeg clean sheet	28%	–	–
Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 4.1 5.0 3.3 1 7.5 9.7 6.2 2.8 2 7.3 9.3 6.0 2.7 3 4.8 6.1 3.9 4 2.4 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Siarka Tarnobrzeg down, Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,620 III Liga - Group 4 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.5% of games this season, across 108 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Siarka Tarnobrzeg at home: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów away: 0.83 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.97 goals for Siarka Tarnobrzeg, 1.30 for Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SIA 3–1 POG · POG 2–2 SIA · POG 1–6 SIA · SIA 1–0 POG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 4 this season · since 5 Sept

SIARKA TARNOBRZEG

WDWLLL2–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 1–4

POGOŃ-SOKÓŁ LUBACZÓW

LWLLLD0–3 · 2–1 · 2–5 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chełmianka Chełm	12	+14	30
2	KSZO 1929	12	+12	23
3	Naprzód	12	+7	23
4	Wisłoka Dębica	12	+3	23
5	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	12	+7	20
6	Czarni Połaniec	12	+1	20
7	Jarosław	12	+6	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	12	+1	17
9	Wisła Kraków II	12	−2	16
10	Korona Kielce II	12	0	14
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	12	−4	14
12	Busko-Zdroj	12	−9	14
13	Sokół Kolb.	12	−1	13
14	KS Wieczysta Krakow II	12	−4	12
15	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	12	−7	12
16	Star Starachowice	12	−5	11
17	Moravia Morawica	12	−9	9
18	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	12	−10	8