Siarka Tarnobrzeg v Naprzód prediction · III Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Siarka TarnobrzegDrawNaprzód

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Siarka Tarnobrzeg 54%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Siarka Tarnobrzeg are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Siarka Tarnobrzeg 54%, draw 21%, Naprzód 25%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Siarka Tarnobrzeg v NaprzódBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Siarka Tarnobrzeg win54%

Draw21%

Naprzód win25%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 12:00

RoundGroup IV · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Naprzód

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · III Liga - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Naprzód	14	+3	24
8	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	14	+1	20

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · siarka tarnobrzeg winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Siarka Tarnobrzeg a 54% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.4, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Siarka Tarnobrzeg v Naprzód~~2.15 – 1.41

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 4 this season · since 19 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 20 v 24~~8 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Siarka Tarnobrzeg win	54%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Naprzód win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	68%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	47%	–	–
Siarka Tarnobrzeg or draw	75%	–	–
Siarka Tarnobrzeg clean sheet	25%	–	–
Naprzód clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.0%

0123450 3.1 4.1 2.9 1 6.2 8.6 6.0 2.9 2 6.6 9.0 6.3 3.0 3 4.7 6.4 4.5 2.1 4 2.6 3.5 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Siarka Tarnobrzeg down, Naprzód across0–5 goals a side shown (97.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,636 III Liga - Group 4 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.1% of games this season, across 124 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Siarka Tarnobrzeg at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Naprzód away: 2.00 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.15 goals for Siarka Tarnobrzeg, 1.41 for Naprzód. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~NAP 0–0 SIA · SIA 4–0 NAP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 4 this season · since 19 Sept

SIARKA TARNOBRZEG

WLLLWW2–0 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 4–0 · 3–2

NAPRZÓD

WWWWLD5–2 · 4–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 0–4 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chełmianka Chełm	14	+16	34
2	KSZO 1929	14	+15	29
3	Wisłoka Dębica	14	+5	26
4	Naprzód	14	+3	24
5	Czarni Połaniec	14	+2	24
6	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	14	+6	21
7	Hetman Zamosc	13	+3	20
8	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	14	+1	20
9	Wisła Kraków II	14	−1	19
10	Jarosław	13	+4	17
11	Star Starachowice	14	−1	17
12	Sokół Kolb.	14	−1	16
13	KS Wieczysta Krakow II	14	−3	16
14	Korona Kielce II	14	−5	14
15	Busko-Zdroj	14	−12	14
16	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	13	−7	13
17	Moravia Morawica	14	−11	9
18	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	13	−14	8