Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów v Podlasie Biała Podlaska prediction · III Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Pogoń-Sokół LubaczówDrawPodlasie Biała Podlaska

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Podlasie Biała Podlaska 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Podlasie Biała Podlaska just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 36%, draw 25%, Podlasie Biała Podlaska 39%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów v Podlasie Biała PodlaskaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów win36%

Draw25%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska win39%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 12:30

RoundGroup IV · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów

Podlasie Biała Podlaska

8Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · III Liga - Group 4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	13	−7	13
18	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	13	−14	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · podlasie biała podlaska winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Podlasie Biała Podlaska a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów v Podlasie Biała Podlaska~~1.42 – 1.46

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 4 this season · since 11 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 8 v 13~~18 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów win	36%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Podlasie Biała Podlaska win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów or draw	61%	–	–
Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów clean sheet	24%	–	–
Podlasie Biała Podlaska clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 6.0 8.2 6.0 3.0 1 7.9 11.5 8.3 4.1 2 5.6 8.0 5.8 2.9 3 2.7 3.8 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów down, Podlasie Biała Podlaska across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,636 III Liga - Group 4 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.1% of games this season, across 124 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Podlasie Biała Podlaska away: 0.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów, 1.46 for Podlasie Biała Podlaska. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~POG 1–3 POD · POD 0–3 POG · POD 2–2 POG · POG 3–0 POD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 4 this season · since 11 Sept

POGOŃ-SOKÓŁ LUBACZÓW

WLLLDL2–1 · 2–5 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–4

PODLASIE BIAŁA PODLASKA

WLLDLD2–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–4 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chełmianka Chełm	14	+16	34
2	KSZO 1929	14	+15	29
3	Wisłoka Dębica	14	+5	26
4	Naprzód	14	+3	24
5	Czarni Połaniec	14	+2	24
6	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	14	+6	21
7	Hetman Zamosc	13	+3	20
8	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	14	+1	20
9	Wisła Kraków II	14	−1	19
10	Jarosław	13	+4	17
11	Star Starachowice	14	−1	17
12	Sokół Kolb.	14	−1	16
13	KS Wieczysta Krakow II	14	−3	16
14	Korona Kielce II	14	−5	14
15	Busko-Zdroj	14	−12	14
16	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	13	−7	13
17	Moravia Morawica	14	−11	9
18	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	13	−14	8