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Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów v KS Wieczysta Krakow II

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów

1–1Full time

KS Wieczysta Krakow II

III Liga - Group 4 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 1–1 KS Wieczysta Krakow II POGOŃ-SOKÓŁ LUBACZÓW WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów win~~45%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.854

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.844

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów win at 45%.
2′Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów find the net on 4′. 0–0. 0–0 · 45–25–30
2′KICK-OFF Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów v KS Wieczysta Krakow II
6′⚽ GOAL · 4' Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 1–0 KS Wieczysta Krakow II
23′We published Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów at 45%. Our model now makes it 72%. 1–0 · 72–19–10
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów win: 45% at kick-off, 72% now
42′⚽ GOAL · 4' Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 1–0 KS Wieczysta Krakow II · J. Chromych
45′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 74–19–7
45′HALF-TIME Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 1–0 KS Wieczysta Krakow II
47′SECOND HALF Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 1–0 KS Wieczysta Krakow II
51′We published Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów at 45%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–19–6
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów win: 45% at kick-off, 76% now
88′⚽ GOAL · 87' Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 1–1 KS Wieczysta Krakow II
FTFULL TIME Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 1–1 KS Wieczysta Krakow II
FTPogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 1–1 KS Wieczysta Krakow II · Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów win45%

Draw25%

KS Wieczysta Krakow II win30%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pogoń-sokół lubaczów winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

45% The market43%

Us45%

~~Market~~43%

We make Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · pogoń-sokół lubaczów win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów win	45%	43%	+2
Draw	25%	25%	0
KS Wieczysta Krakow II win	30%	32%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	52%	60%	−8
Both teams to score	55%	62%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	76%	80%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	30%	40%	−9
Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów or draw	70%	68%	+2
Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów clean sheet	30%	–	–
KS Wieczysta Krakow II clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.7 7.7 4.7 1 9.8 11.7 7.0 2.9 2 7.6 8.9 5.4 2.2 3 4.0 4.6 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów down, KS Wieczysta Krakow II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,612 III Liga - Group 4 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

III Liga - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). KS Wieczysta Krakow II away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.55 goals for Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów, 1.21 for KS Wieczysta Krakow II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 4

POGOŃ-SOKÓŁ LUBACZÓW

WLWLLL4–2 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 2–5 · 0–1 · 1–2

KS WIECZYSTA KRAKOW II

LLLDLW0–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chełmianka Chełm	11	+13	27
2	Wisłoka Dębica	11	+3	22
3	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	12	+7	20
4	KSZO 1929	11	+7	20
5	Naprzód	11	+6	20
6	Czarni Połaniec	11	+2	20
7	Jarosław	11	+7	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	11	0	14
9	Busko-Zdroj	11	−4	14
10	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	12	−4	14
11	Sokół Kolb.	11	0	13
12	Wisła Kraków II	11	−3	13
13	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	11	−3	12
14	Korona Kielce II	11	−4	11
15	Star Starachowice	11	−4	11
16	KS Wieczysta Krakow II	11	−4	11
17	Moravia Morawica	11	−9	8
18	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	11	−10	7