Podlasie Biała Podlaska v Moravia Morawica prediction · III Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Podlasie Biała PodlaskaDrawMoravia Morawica

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Podlasie Biała Podlaska 57%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Podlasie Biała Podlaska are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Podlasie Biała Podlaska 57%, draw 22%, Moravia Morawica 20%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Podlasie Biała Podlaska v Moravia MorawicaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Podlasie Biała Podlaska win57%

Draw22%

Moravia Morawica win20%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup IV · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Podlasie Biała Podlaska

Moravia Morawica

13Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · III Liga - Group 4

Last match: 24 Oct · III Liga - Group 4

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	13	−7	13
17	Moravia Morawica	13	−10	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · podlasie biała podlaska winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Podlasie Biała Podlaska a 57% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Podlasie Biała Podlaska v Moravia Morawica~~1.90 – 1.02

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 4 this season · since 11 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W0 D3 L3

~~Table places · points 13 v 9~~16 v 17

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Podlasie Biała Podlaska win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Podlasie Biała Podlaska win	57%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Moravia Morawica win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Podlasie Biała Podlaska or draw	80%	–	–
Podlasie Biała Podlaska clean sheet	36%	–	–
Moravia Morawica clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 5.8 5.6 2.9 1 10.2 10.4 5.3 2 9.6 9.6 4.9 3 6.1 6.1 3.1 4 3.0 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Podlasie Biała Podlaska down, Moravia Morawica across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,636 III Liga - Group 4 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.1% of games this season, across 124 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Podlasie Biała Podlaska at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Moravia Morawica away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.90 goals for Podlasie Biała Podlaska, 1.02 for Moravia Morawica. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 4 this season · since 11 Sept

PODLASIE BIAŁA PODLASKA

WLLDLD2–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–4 · 1–1

MORAVIA MORAWICA

LDDDLL1–2 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chełmianka Chełm	13	+14	31
2	KSZO 1929	13	+14	26
3	Wisłoka Dębica	14	+5	26
4	Czarni Połaniec	14	+2	24
5	Naprzód	13	+3	23
6	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	14	+6	21
7	Hetman Zamosc	13	+3	20
8	Wisła Kraków II	14	−1	19
9	Jarosław	13	+4	17
10	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	13	0	17
11	Star Starachowice	14	−1	17
12	Sokół Kolb.	13	0	16
13	KS Wieczysta Krakow II	13	−3	15
14	Korona Kielce II	13	−3	14
15	Busko-Zdroj	14	−12	14
16	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	13	−7	13
17	Moravia Morawica	13	−10	9
18	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	13	−14	8