Naprzód v Sokół Kolb. prediction · III Liga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:46

Naprzód 1–0 Sokół Kolb. NAPRZÓD WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Naprzód win~~49%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.392

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.484

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Naprzód win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Naprzód was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–25–26
1′KICK-OFF Naprzód v Sokół Kolb.
2′Much as we predicted: Naprzód was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–25–26
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Naprzód win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Naprzód win: 49% at kick-off, 45% now
45′HALF-TIME Naprzód 0–0 Sokół Kolb.
47′SECOND HALF Naprzód 0–0 Sokół Kolb.
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' Naprzód 1–0 Sokół Kolb.
FTFULL TIME Naprzód 1–0 Sokół Kolb.
FTNaprzód 1–0 Sokół Kolb. · Naprzód win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Naprzód win49%

Draw25%

Sokół Kolb. win27%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Naprzód

Sokół Kolb.

8Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Naprzód	11	+6	20
13	Sokół Kolb.	11	0	13

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · naprzód winPublished 11 Oct 13:14

49% The market43%

Us49%

~~Market~~43%

We make Naprzód a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · naprzód win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Naprzód win	49%	43%	+6
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Sokół Kolb. win	27%	30%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	53%	56%	−3
Both teams to score	55%	60%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	77%	78%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	31%	35%	−4
Naprzód or draw	73%	70%	+4
Naprzód clean sheet	32%	–	–
Sokół Kolb. clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 6.5 6.9 4.1 1 9.9 11.5 6.5 2.5 2 8.2 9.2 5.3 2.1 3 4.6 5.1 2.9 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Naprzód down, Sokół Kolb. across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,618 III Liga - Group 4 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

III Liga - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.5% of games this season, across 106 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Naprzód at home: 2.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Sokół Kolb. away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Naprzód, 1.15 for Sokół Kolb.. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~NAP 0–1 SOK · SOK 0–1 NAP

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 4

NAPRZÓD

DDWWWW0–0 · 2–2 · 4–2 · 5–2 · 4–1 · 3–1

SOKÓŁ KOLB.

DDDDWD0–0 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chełmianka Chełm	12	+14	30
2	KSZO 1929	12	+12	23
3	Wisłoka Dębica	12	+3	23
4	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	12	+7	20
5	Naprzód	11	+6	20
6	Czarni Połaniec	11	+2	20
7	Jarosław	12	+6	17
8	Wisła Kraków II	12	−2	16
9	Korona Kielce II	12	0	14
10	Hetman Zamosc	11	0	14
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	12	−4	14
12	Busko-Zdroj	12	−9	14
13	Sokół Kolb.	11	0	13
14	KS Wieczysta Krakow II	12	−4	12
15	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	12	−7	12
16	Star Starachowice	12	−5	11
17	Moravia Morawica	12	−9	9
18	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	12	−10	8