Naprzód v KS Wieczysta Krakow II prediction · III Liga

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 01:42

Naprzód 2–2 KS Wieczysta Krakow II NAPRZÓD WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Naprzód win~~47%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.870

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.817

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Naprzód are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Naprzód 47%, draw 25%, KS Wieczysta Krakow II 28%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Naprzód v KS Wieczysta Krakow IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Naprzód win47%

Draw25%

KS Wieczysta Krakow II win28%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup IV · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Naprzód

KS Wieczysta Krakow II

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · III Liga - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Naprzód	13	+3	23
13	KS Wieczysta Krakow II	13	−3	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · naprzód winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

47% The market38%

Us47%

~~Market~~38%

We make Naprzód a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Naprzód v KS Wieczysta Krakow II~~1.62 – 1.20

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 4 this season · since 11 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 23 v 15~~4 v 13

~~The market · Naprzód win~~38% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Naprzód win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Naprzód win	47%	38%	+9
Draw	25%	26%	−1
KS Wieczysta Krakow II win	28%	36%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	53%	63%	−10
Both teams to score	55%	66%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	77%	81%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	31%	43%	−12
Naprzód or draw	72%	64%	+8
Naprzód clean sheet	31%	–	–
KS Wieczysta Krakow II clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 6.4 7.2 4.4 1 9.7 11.5 6.8 2.8 2 7.8 9.0 5.4 2.2 3 4.2 4.9 2.9 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Naprzód down, KS Wieczysta Krakow II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,630 III Liga - Group 4 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.8% of games this season, across 118 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Naprzód at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). KS Wieczysta Krakow II away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for Naprzód, 1.20 for KS Wieczysta Krakow II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 4 this season · since 11 Sept

NAPRZÓD

WWWWWL4–2 · 5–2 · 4–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 0–4

KS WIECZYSTA KRAKOW II

LDLWDW1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chełmianka Chełm	13	+14	31
2	KSZO 1929	13	+14	26
3	Wisłoka Dębica	13	+7	26
4	Naprzód	13	+3	23
5	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	14	+6	21
6	Czarni Połaniec	13	+1	21
7	Hetman Zamosc	13	+3	20
8	Jarosław	13	+4	17
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	13	0	17
10	Star Starachowice	14	−1	17
11	Sokół Kolb.	13	0	16
12	Wisła Kraków II	13	−3	16
13	KS Wieczysta Krakow II	13	−3	15
14	Korona Kielce II	13	−3	14
15	Busko-Zdroj	13	−11	14
16	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	13	−7	13
17	Moravia Morawica	13	−10	9
18	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	13	−14	8