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Moravia Morawica v Wisłoka Dębica

Moravia Morawica

0–0Full time

Wisłoka Dębica

III Liga - Group 4 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 01:30

Moravia Morawica 0–0 Wisłoka Dębica WISŁOKA DĘBICA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Wisłoka Dębica win~~40%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.818

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.810

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Moravia Morawica win34%

Draw26%

Wisłoka Dębica win40%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · wisłoka dębica winPublished 10 Oct 23:45

40% The market43%

Us40%

~~Market~~43%

We make Wisłoka Dębica a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · wisłoka dębica win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Moravia Morawica win	34%	30%	+5
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Wisłoka Dębica win	40%	43%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	49%	55%	−7
Both teams to score	53%	59%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	73%	77%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	27%	35%	−8
Moravia Morawica or draw	60%	57%	+4
Moravia Morawica clean sheet	26%	–	–
Wisłoka Dębica clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.7 9.9 6.8 3.2 1 9.1 12.2 8.3 3.8 2 5.7 7.6 5.2 2.4 3 2.4 3.2 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Moravia Morawica down, Wisłoka Dębica across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,612 III Liga - Group 4 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

III Liga - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Moravia Morawica at home: 1.17 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Wisłoka Dębica away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for Moravia Morawica, 1.37 for Wisłoka Dębica. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 4

MORAVIA MORAWICA

LLLLDD0–4 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 2–2

WISŁOKA DĘBICA

LWWWWW0–1 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chełmianka Chełm	11	+13	27
2	Wisłoka Dębica	11	+3	22
3	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	12	+7	20
4	KSZO 1929	11	+7	20
5	Naprzód	11	+6	20
6	Czarni Połaniec	11	+2	20
7	Jarosław	11	+7	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	11	0	14
9	Busko-Zdroj	11	−4	14
10	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	12	−4	14
11	Sokół Kolb.	11	0	13
12	Wisła Kraków II	11	−3	13
13	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	11	−3	12
14	Korona Kielce II	11	−4	11
15	Star Starachowice	11	−4	11
16	KS Wieczysta Krakow II	11	−4	11
17	Moravia Morawica	11	−9	8
18	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	11	−10	7