Moravia Morawica v Siarka Tarnobrzeg prediction · III Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Moravia MorawicaDrawSiarka Tarnobrzeg

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Siarka Tarnobrzeg 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Siarka Tarnobrzeg are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Moravia Morawica 30%, draw 23%, Siarka Tarnobrzeg 47%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Moravia Morawica v Siarka TarnobrzegBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Moravia Morawica win30%

Draw23%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg win47%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup IV · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Moravia Morawica

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · III Liga - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	13	0	17
17	Moravia Morawica	13	−10	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · siarka tarnobrzeg winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 24 Oct 10:16 · locked at kick-off

47% The market46%

Us47%

~~Market~~46%

We make Siarka Tarnobrzeg a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Moravia Morawica v Siarka Tarnobrzeg~~1.34 – 1.73

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 4 this season · since 12 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 9 v 17~~17 v 9

~~The market · Siarka Tarnobrzeg win~~46% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Siarka Tarnobrzeg win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 47% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Moravia Morawica win	30%	28%	+2
Draw	23%	26%	−3
Siarka Tarnobrzeg win	47%	46%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	59%	60%	−1
Both teams to score	60%	63%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	81%	80%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	37%	41%	−4
Moravia Morawica or draw	53%	54%	−1
Moravia Morawica clean sheet	18%	–	–
Siarka Tarnobrzeg clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 5.0 8.0 6.9 4.0 1 6.2 10.7 9.0 5.2 2.3 2 4.2 7.0 6.0 3.5 3 3.2 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Moravia Morawica down, Siarka Tarnobrzeg across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,630 III Liga - Group 4 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.8% of games this season, across 118 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Moravia Morawica at home: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Siarka Tarnobrzeg away: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Moravia Morawica, 1.73 for Siarka Tarnobrzeg. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 4 this season · since 12 Sept

MORAVIA MORAWICA

LLDDDL1–2 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 0–1

SIARKA TARNOBRZEG

DWLLLW1–1 · 2–0 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chełmianka Chełm	13	+14	31
2	KSZO 1929	13	+14	26
3	Wisłoka Dębica	13	+7	26
4	Naprzód	13	+3	23
5	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	14	+6	21
6	Czarni Połaniec	13	+1	21
7	Hetman Zamosc	13	+3	20
8	Jarosław	13	+4	17
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	13	0	17
10	Star Starachowice	14	−1	17
11	Sokół Kolb.	13	0	16
12	Wisła Kraków II	13	−3	16
13	KS Wieczysta Krakow II	13	−3	15
14	Korona Kielce II	13	−3	14
15	Busko-Zdroj	13	−11	14
16	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	13	−7	13
17	Moravia Morawica	13	−10	9
18	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	13	−14	8