Korona Kielce II v Wiślanie Jaśkowice prediction · III Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Korona Kielce IIDrawWiślanie Jaśkowice

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Korona Kielce II 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Korona Kielce II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Korona Kielce II 49%, draw 21%, Wiślanie Jaśkowice 30%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Korona Kielce II v Wiślanie JaśkowiceBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Korona Kielce II win49%

Draw21%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice win30%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup IV · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Korona Kielce II

Wiślanie Jaśkowice

5Days since last match6

Last match: 24 Oct · III Liga - Group 4

Last match: 23 Oct · III Liga - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	14	+6	21
14	Korona Kielce II	14	−5	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · korona kielce ii winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · updated 24 Oct 00:21 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Korona Kielce II a 49% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Korona Kielce II v Wiślanie Jaśkowice~~2.06 – 1.56

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 4 this season · since 19 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 14 v 21~~14 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Korona Kielce II win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Korona Kielce II win	49%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Wiślanie Jaśkowice win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	69%	–	–
Both teams to score	68%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	48%	–	–
Korona Kielce II or draw	70%	–	–
Korona Kielce II clean sheet	22%	–	–
Wiślanie Jaśkowice clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.7%

0123450 3.0 4.3 3.3 1 5.6 8.7 6.6 3.4 2 5.7 8.7 6.6 3.5 3 3.9 5.9 4.5 2.4 4 2.0 3.1 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Korona Kielce II down, Wiślanie Jaśkowice across0–5 goals a side shown (97.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,636 III Liga - Group 4 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.1% of games this season, across 124 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 4.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Korona Kielce II at home: 2.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Wiślanie Jaśkowice away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.06 goals for Korona Kielce II, 1.56 for Wiślanie Jaśkowice. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~4.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~4 of 4

~~Last meetings~~KOR 4–1 WIS · WIS 1–3 KOR · KOR 5–1 WIS · WIS 1–1 KOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 4 this season · since 19 Sept

KORONA KIELCE II

LWWWLL0–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 1–4 · 0–2

WIŚLANIE JAŚKOWICE

DLLWDL1–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chełmianka Chełm	14	+16	34
2	KSZO 1929	14	+15	29
3	Wisłoka Dębica	14	+5	26
4	Naprzód	14	+3	24
5	Czarni Połaniec	14	+2	24
6	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	14	+6	21
7	Hetman Zamosc	13	+3	20
8	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	14	+1	20
9	Wisła Kraków II	14	−1	19
10	Jarosław	13	+4	17
11	Star Starachowice	14	−1	17
12	Sokół Kolb.	14	−1	16
13	KS Wieczysta Krakow II	14	−3	16
14	Korona Kielce II	14	−5	14
15	Busko-Zdroj	14	−12	14
16	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	13	−7	13
17	Moravia Morawica	14	−11	9
18	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	13	−14	8