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Korona Kielce II v Podlasie Biała Podlaska

Korona Kielce II

4–0Full time

Podlasie Biała Podlaska

III Liga - Group 4 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:06

Korona Kielce II 4–0 Podlasie Biała Podlaska KORONA KIELCE II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Korona Kielce II win~~43%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.497

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.529

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Korona Kielce II win at 43%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Korona Kielce II 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–22–35
2′KICK-OFF Korona Kielce II v Podlasie Biała Podlaska
36′⚽ GOAL · 33' Korona Kielce II 1–0 Podlasie Biała Podlaska
43′33′ and it is 1–0: Korona Kielce II have scored. 1–0 · 69–21–11
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Korona Kielce II win: 43% at kick-off, 69% now
45′We said Korona Kielce II at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 69%. 1–0 · 69–21–10
45′HALF-TIME Korona Kielce II 1–0 Podlasie Biała Podlaska
47′SECOND HALF Korona Kielce II 1–0 Podlasie Biała Podlaska
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Korona Kielce II 2–0 Podlasie Biała Podlaska
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Korona Kielce II 3–0 Podlasie Biała Podlaska
60′⚽ GOAL · 33' Korona Kielce II 3–0 Podlasie Biała Podlaska · S. Sarudi
60′⚽ GOAL · 49' Korona Kielce II 3–0 Podlasie Biała Podlaska
60′⚽ GOAL · 59' Korona Kielce II 3–0 Podlasie Biała Podlaska
65′A goal for Korona Kielce II on 59′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Korona Kielce II win: 43% at kick-off, 99% now
89′87′ and it is 4–0: Korona Kielce II have scored. 4–0 · 100–0–0
89′⚽ GOAL · 87' Korona Kielce II 4–0 Podlasie Biała Podlaska
FTFULL TIME Korona Kielce II 4–0 Podlasie Biała Podlaska
FTKorona Kielce II 4–0 Podlasie Biała Podlaska · Korona Kielce II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Korona Kielce II win43%

Draw22%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska win35%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · korona kielce ii winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

43% The market41%

Us43%

~~Market~~41%

We make Korona Kielce II a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.9–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · korona kielce ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Korona Kielce II win	43%	41%	+2
Draw	22%	26%	−4
Podlasie Biała Podlaska win	35%	33%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	68%	60%	+8
Both teams to score	68%	64%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	86%	81%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	47%	41%	+6
Korona Kielce II or draw	65%	67%	−2
Korona Kielce II clean sheet	19%	–	–
Podlasie Biała Podlaska clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.0%

0123450 3.1 4.9 4.1 2.3 1 5.5 9.0 7.4 4.2 2 5.1 8.2 6.8 3.8 3 3.2 5.1 4.2 2.4 4 2.5 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Korona Kielce II down, Podlasie Biała Podlaska across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,612 III Liga - Group 4 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

III Liga - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.83 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Korona Kielce II at home: 2.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Podlasie Biała Podlaska away: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.87 goals for Korona Kielce II, 1.68 for Podlasie Biała Podlaska. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.83

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~POD 1–1 KOR · KOR 2–2 POD · KOR 0–3 POD · POD 3–0 KOR

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 4

KORONA KIELCE II

WLDLWW4–1 · 2–6 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–1

PODLASIE BIAŁA PODLASKA

DLWLLD0–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chełmianka Chełm	11	+13	27
2	Wisłoka Dębica	11	+3	22
3	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	12	+7	20
4	KSZO 1929	11	+7	20
5	Naprzód	11	+6	20
6	Czarni Połaniec	11	+2	20
7	Jarosław	11	+7	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	11	0	14
9	Busko-Zdroj	11	−4	14
10	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	12	−4	14
11	Sokół Kolb.	11	0	13
12	Wisła Kraków II	11	−3	13
13	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	11	−3	12
14	Korona Kielce II	11	−4	11
15	Star Starachowice	11	−4	11
16	KS Wieczysta Krakow II	11	−4	11
17	Moravia Morawica	11	−9	8
18	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	11	−10	7