Jarosław v KSZO 1929 prediction · III Liga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Jarosław 1–3 KSZO 1929 KSZO 1929 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said KSZO 1929 win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.439

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

KSZO 1929 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Jarosław 31%, draw 23%, KSZO 1929 46%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Jarosław v KSZO 1929Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Jarosław win31%

Draw23%

KSZO 1929 win46%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup IV · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Jarosław

KSZO 1929

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · III Liga - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	KSZO 1929	12	+12	23
7	Jarosław	12	+6	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kszo 1929 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make KSZO 1929 a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Jarosław v KSZO 1929~~1.40 – 1.77

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 4 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 17 v 23~~7 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Jarosław win	31%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
KSZO 1929 win	46%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Jarosław or draw	54%	–	–
Jarosław clean sheet	18%	–	–
KSZO 1929 clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.3%

0123450 4.6 7.5 6.6 3.9 1 6.0 10.3 8.8 5.2 2.4 2 4.2 7.1 6.1 3.6 3 2.0 3.4 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Jarosław down, KSZO 1929 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,620 III Liga - Group 4 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.5% of games this season, across 108 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Jarosław at home: 3.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). KSZO 1929 away: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Jarosław, 1.77 for KSZO 1929. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 4 this season · since 5 Sept

JAROSŁAW

WLWDLL6–2 · 1–3 · 5–2 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 1–2

KSZO 1929

DWDLDW2–2 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 5–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chełmianka Chełm	12	+14	30
2	KSZO 1929	12	+12	23
3	Naprzód	12	+7	23
4	Wisłoka Dębica	12	+3	23
5	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	12	+7	20
6	Czarni Połaniec	12	+1	20
7	Jarosław	12	+6	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	12	+1	17
9	Wisła Kraków II	12	−2	16
10	KS Wieczysta Krakow II	13	−3	15
11	Korona Kielce II	12	0	14
12	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	12	−4	14
13	Busko-Zdroj	12	−9	14
14	Sokół Kolb.	12	−1	13
15	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	12	−7	12
16	Star Starachowice	12	−5	11
17	Moravia Morawica	13	−10	9
18	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	12	−10	8