Jarosław v Czarni Połaniec prediction · III Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

JarosławDrawCzarni Połaniec

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Jarosław 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Jarosław are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Jarosław 44%, draw 22%, Czarni Połaniec 34%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Jarosław v Czarni PołaniecBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Jarosław win44%

Draw22%

Czarni Połaniec win34%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 12:30

RoundGroup IV · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Jarosław

Czarni Połaniec

14Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · III Liga - Group 4

Last match: 24 Oct · III Liga - Group 4

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Czarni Połaniec	14	+2	24
10	Jarosław	13	+4	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · jarosław winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Jarosław a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Jarosław v Czarni Połaniec~~1.94 – 1.69

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 4 this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 17 v 24~~10 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Jarosław win	44%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Czarni Połaniec win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	70%	–	–
Both teams to score	69%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	49%	–	–
Jarosław or draw	66%	–	–
Jarosław clean sheet	19%	–	–
Czarni Połaniec clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.7%

0123450 3.0 4.6 3.9 2.2 1 5.2 8.7 7.2 4.1 2 5.0 8.2 6.8 3.8 3 3.3 5.3 4.4 2.5 4 2.6 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Jarosław down, Czarni Połaniec across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,636 III Liga - Group 4 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.1% of games this season, across 124 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Jarosław at home: 3.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Czarni Połaniec away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.94 goals for Jarosław, 1.69 for Czarni Połaniec. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 4 this season · since 12 Sept

JAROSŁAW

LWDLLL1–3 · 5–2 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 1–3

CZARNI POŁANIEC

LDDLDW2–5 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chełmianka Chełm	14	+16	34
2	KSZO 1929	14	+15	29
3	Wisłoka Dębica	14	+5	26
4	Naprzód	14	+3	24
5	Czarni Połaniec	14	+2	24
6	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	14	+6	21
7	Hetman Zamosc	13	+3	20
8	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	14	+1	20
9	Wisła Kraków II	14	−1	19
10	Jarosław	13	+4	17
11	Star Starachowice	14	−1	17
12	Sokół Kolb.	14	−1	16
13	KS Wieczysta Krakow II	14	−3	16
14	Korona Kielce II	14	−5	14
15	Busko-Zdroj	14	−12	14
16	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	13	−7	13
17	Moravia Morawica	14	−11	9
18	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	13	−14	8