Hetman Zamosc v Czarni Połaniec prediction · III Liga

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 01:30

Hetman Zamosc 1–0 Czarni Połaniec HETMAN ZAMOSC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hetman Zamosc win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.518

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Hetman Zamosc win42%

Draw22%

Czarni Połaniec win36%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Hetman Zamosc

Czarni Połaniec

7Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Czarni Połaniec	11	+2	20
10	Hetman Zamosc	11	0	14

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hetman zamosc winPublished 11 Oct 23:32

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Hetman Zamosc a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hetman Zamosc win	42%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Czarni Połaniec win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	66%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	45%	–	–
Hetman Zamosc or draw	64%	–	–
Hetman Zamosc clean sheet	20%	–	–
Czarni Połaniec clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.5%

0123450 3.6 5.3 4.4 2.5 1 5.8 9.5 7.6 4.2 2 5.2 8.2 6.7 3.7 3 3.1 4.9 4.0 2.2 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hetman Zamosc down, Czarni Połaniec across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,618 III Liga - Group 4 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

III Liga - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.5% of games this season, across 106 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Hetman Zamosc at home: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Czarni Połaniec away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.79 goals for Hetman Zamosc, 1.65 for Czarni Połaniec. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 4

HETMAN ZAMOSC

LWLDWD2–4 · 2–1 · 2–4 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 2–2

CZARNI POŁANIEC

WWWLDD1–0 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 2–5 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chełmianka Chełm	12	+14	30
2	KSZO 1929	12	+12	23
3	Wisłoka Dębica	12	+3	23
4	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	12	+7	20
5	Naprzód	11	+6	20
6	Czarni Połaniec	11	+2	20
7	Jarosław	12	+6	17
8	Wisła Kraków II	12	−2	16
9	Korona Kielce II	12	0	14
10	Hetman Zamosc	11	0	14
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	12	−4	14
12	Busko-Zdroj	12	−9	14
13	Sokół Kolb.	11	0	13
14	KS Wieczysta Krakow II	12	−4	12
15	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	12	−7	12
16	Star Starachowice	12	−5	11
17	Moravia Morawica	12	−9	9
18	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	12	−10	8