Czarni Połaniec v Chełmianka Chełm prediction · III Liga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Czarni Połaniec 0–0 Chełmianka Chełm CHEŁMIANKA CHEŁM WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chełmianka Chełm win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.866

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chełmianka Chełm are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Czarni Połaniec 31%, draw 24%, Chełmianka Chełm 44%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Czarni Połaniec v Chełmianka ChełmBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Czarni Połaniec win31%

Draw24%

Chełmianka Chełm win44%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup IV · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Czarni Połaniec

Chełmianka Chełm

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · III Liga - Group 4

Last match: 10 Oct · III Liga - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chełmianka chełm winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Chełmianka Chełm a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Czarni Połaniec v Chełmianka Chełm~~1.31 – 1.61

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 4 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 20 v 30~~6 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Czarni Połaniec win	31%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Chełmianka Chełm win	44%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Czarni Połaniec or draw	56%	–	–
Czarni Połaniec clean sheet	21%	–	–
Chełmianka Chełm clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 5.8 8.8 7.0 3.8 1 7.1 11.3 8.9 4.8 2 4.7 7.3 5.8 3.1 3 2.1 3.2 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Czarni Połaniec down, Chełmianka Chełm across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,620 III Liga - Group 4 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.5% of games this season, across 108 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.10 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Czarni Połaniec at home: 1.83 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Chełmianka Chełm away: 1.67 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Czarni Połaniec, 1.61 for Chełmianka Chełm. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CZA 1–1 CHE · CHE 1–0 CZA · CZA 2–3 CHE · CHE 3–1 CZA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 4 this season · since 5 Sept

CZARNI POŁANIEC

WWLDDL3–0 · 2–1 · 2–5 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1

CHEŁMIANKA CHEŁM

WDDWDW2–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chełmianka Chełm	12	+14	30
2	KSZO 1929	12	+12	23
3	Naprzód	12	+7	23
4	Wisłoka Dębica	12	+3	23
5	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	12	+7	20
6	Czarni Połaniec	12	+1	20
7	Jarosław	12	+6	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	12	+1	17
9	Wisła Kraków II	12	−2	16
10	Korona Kielce II	12	0	14
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	12	−4	14
12	Busko-Zdroj	12	−9	14
13	Sokół Kolb.	12	−1	13
14	KS Wieczysta Krakow II	12	−4	12
15	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	12	−7	12
16	Star Starachowice	12	−5	11
17	Moravia Morawica	12	−9	9
18	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	12	−10	8