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Czarni Połaniec v Busko-Zdroj

Czarni Połaniec

2–1Full time

Busko-Zdroj

III Liga - Group 4 · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 12:41

Czarni Połaniec 2–1 Busko-Zdroj CZARNI POŁANIEC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Czarni Połaniec win~~60%

~~The market said~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.243

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.196

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Czarni Połaniec win at 60%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Czarni Połaniec 60% before kick-off, 59% now. 0–0 · 59–20–21
2′KICK-OFF Czarni Połaniec v Busko-Zdroj
13′A goal for Busko-Zdroj on 13′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 34–23–43
13′We said Czarni Połaniec at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–1 · 34–23–43
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Czarni Połaniec 0–1 Busko-Zdroj
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Czarni Połaniec win: 60% at kick-off, 34% now
13′THE CALL SWINGS · 13' Busko-Zdroj win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Czarni Połaniec win 57%)
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Czarni Połaniec win: 60% at kick-off, 30% now
26′Czarni Połaniec score on 25′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 54–25–21
26′⚽ GOAL · 25' Czarni Połaniec 1–1 Busko-Zdroj
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Czarni Połaniec win: 60% at kick-off, 54% now
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Czarni Połaniec win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Busko-Zdroj win 46%)
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Czarni Połaniec win: 60% at kick-off, 50% now
41′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 1–1 · 49–30–21
44′We said Czarni Połaniec at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 48%. 1–1 · 48–31–21
45′HALF-TIME Czarni Połaniec 1–1 Busko-Zdroj
46′SECOND HALF Czarni Połaniec 1–1 Busko-Zdroj
47′PENALTY MISSED · 45+2' Czarni Połaniec
54′We said Czarni Połaniec at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 43%. 1–1 · 43–37–20
61′We said Czarni Połaniec at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–42–18
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Czarni Połaniec win: 60% at kick-off, 39% now
63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Czarni Połaniec win 41%)
65′Czarni Połaniec find the net on 65′. 2–1. 2–1 · 83–15–3
65′We said Czarni Połaniec at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 2–1 · 83–15–3
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Czarni Połaniec 2–1 Busko-Zdroj
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Czarni Połaniec win: 60% at kick-off, 83% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Czarni Połaniec win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 45%)
71′We said Czarni Połaniec at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
80′We said Czarni Połaniec at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Czarni Połaniec win: 60% at kick-off, 90% now
87′We said Czarni Połaniec at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
FTFULL TIME Czarni Połaniec 2–1 Busko-Zdroj
FTCzarni Połaniec 2–1 Busko-Zdroj · Czarni Połaniec win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Czarni Połaniec are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Czarni Połaniec 60%, draw 20%, Busko-Zdroj 21%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Czarni Połaniec v Busko-ZdrojBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Czarni Połaniec win60%

Draw20%

Busko-Zdroj win21%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 10:00

RoundGroup IV · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Czarni Połaniec

Busko-Zdroj

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · III Liga - Group 4

Last match: 18 Oct · III Liga - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Czarni Połaniec	13	+1	21
15	Busko-Zdroj	13	−11	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · czarni połaniec winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off

60% The market64%

Us60%

~~Market~~64%

We make Czarni Połaniec a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Czarni Połaniec v Busko-Zdroj~~2.27 – 1.25

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 4 this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 21 v 14~~6 v 15

~~The market · Czarni Połaniec win~~64% · ours 60%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Czarni Połaniec win The market, margin stripped

Published at 58%, 60% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Czarni Połaniec win	60%	64%	−4
Draw	20%	20%	0
Busko-Zdroj win	21%	16%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	68%	66%	+2
Both teams to score	63%	60%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	86%	82%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	47%	45%	+2
Czarni Połaniec or draw	79%	84%	−5
Czarni Połaniec clean sheet	29%	–	–
Busko-Zdroj clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.2%

0123450 3.3 3.8 2.4 1 6.8 8.4 5.2 2.2 2 7.6 9.2 5.7 2.5 3 5.7 6.9 4.3 4 3.3 4.0 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Czarni Połaniec down, Busko-Zdroj across0–5 goals a side shown (96.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,630 III Liga - Group 4 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.8% of games this season, across 118 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Czarni Połaniec at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Busko-Zdroj away: 0.83 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.27 goals for Czarni Połaniec, 1.25 for Busko-Zdroj. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 4 this season · since 12 Sept

CZARNI POŁANIEC

WLDDLD2–1 · 2–5 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–0

BUSKO-ZDROJ

LWLWLL1–2 · 2–1 · 1–4 · 3–0 · 0–5 · 2–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chełmianka Chełm	13	+14	31
2	KSZO 1929	13	+14	26
3	Wisłoka Dębica	13	+7	26
4	Naprzód	13	+3	23
5	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	14	+6	21
6	Czarni Połaniec	13	+1	21
7	Hetman Zamosc	13	+3	20
8	Jarosław	13	+4	17
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	13	0	17
10	Star Starachowice	14	−1	17
11	Sokół Kolb.	13	0	16
12	Wisła Kraków II	13	−3	16
13	KS Wieczysta Krakow II	13	−3	15
14	Korona Kielce II	13	−3	14
15	Busko-Zdroj	13	−11	14
16	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	13	−7	13
17	Moravia Morawica	13	−10	9
18	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	13	−14	8