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Chełmianka Chełm v Star Starachowice

Chełmianka Chełm

2–1Full time

Star Starachowice

III Liga - Group 4 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 01:30

Chełmianka Chełm 2–1 Star Starachowice CHEŁMIANKA CHEŁM WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chełmianka Chełm win~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.288

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Chełmianka Chełm win56%

Draw23%

Star Starachowice win21%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chełmianka chełm winPublished 10 Oct 23:45

56% The market–

Us56%

We make Chełmianka Chełm a 56% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chełmianka Chełm win	56%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Star Starachowice win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Chełmianka Chełm or draw	79%	–	–
Chełmianka Chełm clean sheet	38%	–	–
Star Starachowice clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.0%

0123450 6.4 6.1 3.1 1 11.0 10.8 5.3 2 9.9 9.5 4.7 3 6.0 5.7 2.9 4 2.8 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chełmianka Chełm down, Star Starachowice across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,612 III Liga - Group 4 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

III Liga - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chełmianka Chełm at home: 1.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Star Starachowice away: 0.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.81 goals for Chełmianka Chełm, 0.99 for Star Starachowice. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~CHE 5–2 STA · STA 1–1 CHE · CHE 1–1 STA · STA 5–1 CHE

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 4

CHEŁMIANKA CHEŁM

WWDDWD1–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–2

STAR STARACHOWICE

LDLDWD0–3 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 0–0 · 4–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chełmianka Chełm	11	+13	27
2	Wisłoka Dębica	11	+3	22
3	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	12	+7	20
4	KSZO 1929	11	+7	20
5	Naprzód	11	+6	20
6	Czarni Połaniec	11	+2	20
7	Jarosław	11	+7	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	11	0	14
9	Busko-Zdroj	11	−4	14
10	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	12	−4	14
11	Sokół Kolb.	11	0	13
12	Wisła Kraków II	11	−3	13
13	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	11	−3	12
14	Korona Kielce II	11	−4	11
15	Star Starachowice	11	−4	11
16	KS Wieczysta Krakow II	11	−4	11
17	Moravia Morawica	11	−9	8
18	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	11	−10	7