Chełmianka Chełm v Korona Kielce II prediction · III Liga

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 01:42

Chełmianka Chełm 2–0 Korona Kielce II CHEŁMIANKA CHEŁM WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chełmianka Chełm win~~62%

~~The market said~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.219

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.191

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chełmianka Chełm are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chełmianka Chełm 62%, draw 19%, Korona Kielce II 20%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Chełmianka Chełm v Korona Kielce IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Chełmianka Chełm win62%

Draw19%

Korona Kielce II win20%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup IV · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chełmianka Chełm

Korona Kielce II

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · III Liga - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chełmianka chełm winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

62% The market64%

Us62%

~~Market~~64%

We make Chełmianka Chełm a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.5–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chełmianka Chełm v Korona Kielce II~~2.45 – 1.32

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 4 this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D4 L0 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 31 v 14~~1 v 14

~~The market · Chełmianka Chełm win~~64% · ours 62%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Chełmianka Chełm win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chełmianka Chełm win	62%	64%	−2
Draw	19%	19%	0
Korona Kielce II win	20%	17%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	72%	69%	+3
Both teams to score	66%	63%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	89%	85%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	52%	50%	+2
Chełmianka Chełm or draw	80%	83%	−3
Chełmianka Chełm clean sheet	27%	–	–
Korona Kielce II clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.9%

0123450 2.6 3.1 2.1 1 5.7 7.6 4.9 2.2 2 6.9 8.9 5.8 2.6 3 5.6 7.2 4.7 2.1 4 3.5 4.4 2.9 5 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Chełmianka Chełm down, Korona Kielce II across0–5 goals a side shown (95.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,630 III Liga - Group 4 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.8% of games this season, across 118 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chełmianka Chełm at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Korona Kielce II away: 1.83 scored, 3.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.45 goals for Chełmianka Chełm, 1.32 for Korona Kielce II. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~CHE 4–1 KOR · KOR 3–1 CHE · CHE 1–2 KOR · KOR 2–4 CHE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 4 this season · since 12 Sept

CHEŁMIANKA CHEŁM

DDWDWD1–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–0

KORONA KIELCE II

DLWWWL2–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chełmianka Chełm	13	+14	31
2	KSZO 1929	13	+14	26
3	Wisłoka Dębica	13	+7	26
4	Naprzód	13	+3	23
5	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	14	+6	21
6	Czarni Połaniec	13	+1	21
7	Hetman Zamosc	13	+3	20
8	Jarosław	13	+4	17
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	13	0	17
10	Star Starachowice	14	−1	17
11	Sokół Kolb.	13	0	16
12	Wisła Kraków II	13	−3	16
13	KS Wieczysta Krakow II	13	−3	15
14	Korona Kielce II	13	−3	14
15	Busko-Zdroj	13	−11	14
16	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	13	−7	13
17	Moravia Morawica	13	−10	9
18	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	13	−14	8