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Busko-Zdroj v Hetman Zamosc
Busko-Zdroj
Hetman ZamoscIII Liga - Group 4 · SUN 18 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Hetman Zamosc win at 41%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Hetman Zamosc was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 38–22–40
- 1′KICK-OFF Busko-Zdroj v Hetman Zamosc
- 2′Busko-Zdroj find the net on 2′. 1–0. 1–0 · 60–19–22
- 2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Busko-Zdroj 1–0 Hetman Zamosc
- 2′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 2' Hetman Zamosc win: 41% at kick-off, 22% now
- 2′THE CALL SWINGS · 2' Busko-Zdroj win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Hetman Zamosc win 22%)
- 4′We said Hetman Zamosc at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 1–0 · 60–19–21
- 4′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 4' Hetman Zamosc win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
- 15′We said Hetman Zamosc at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 61–20–19
- 22′A goal for Hetman Zamosc on 19′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 36–26–38
- 22′⚽ GOAL · 19' Busko-Zdroj 1–1 Hetman Zamosc
- 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Hetman Zamosc win: 41% at kick-off, 38% now
- 43′Goals are coming at about the 3.6 we expected. 1–1 · 33–32–35
- 45′HALF-TIME Busko-Zdroj 1–1 Hetman Zamosc
- 46′SECOND HALF Busko-Zdroj 1–1 Hetman Zamosc
- 51′Hetman Zamosc score on 50′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 10–21–69
- 51′We published Hetman Zamosc at 41%. Our model now makes it 69%. 1–2 · 10–21–69
- 51′⚽ GOAL · 50' Busko-Zdroj 1–2 Hetman Zamosc
- 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Hetman Zamosc win: 41% at kick-off, 69% now
- 51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Hetman Zamosc win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Busko-Zdroj win 10%)
- 53′We published Hetman Zamosc at 41%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–2 · 9–21–70
- 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Hetman Zamosc win: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
- 62′Busko-Zdroj find the net on 61′. 2–2. 2–2 · 27–44–29
- 62′We said Hetman Zamosc at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 2–2 · 27–44–29
- 62′⚽ GOAL · 61' Busko-Zdroj 2–2 Hetman Zamosc
- 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Hetman Zamosc win: 41% at kick-off, 29% now
- 62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Hetman Zamosc win 29%)
- 63′4 goals already, more than the 3.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 27–45–28
- 71′We published Hetman Zamosc at 41%. Our model now makes it 78%. 2–3 · 4–18–78
- 71′A goal for Hetman Zamosc on 70′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 4–18–78
- 71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Busko-Zdroj 2–3 Hetman Zamosc
- 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Hetman Zamosc win: 41% at kick-off, 78% now
- 71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Hetman Zamosc win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 18%)
- 72′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.6 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 4–18–78
- 74′We published Hetman Zamosc at 41%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–3 · 3–17–80
- 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Hetman Zamosc win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
- 80′We published Hetman Zamosc at 41%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–3 · 1–13–85
- 83′Hetman Zamosc score on 82′ to make it 2–4. 2–4 · 0–1–99
- 83′We published Hetman Zamosc at 41%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–4 · 0–1–99
- 83′6 goals already, more than the 3.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–4 · 0–1–99
- 83′⚽ GOAL · 82' Busko-Zdroj 2–4 Hetman Zamosc
- 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Hetman Zamosc win: 41% at kick-off, 99% now
- 85′We published Hetman Zamosc at 41%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–4 · 0–0–100
- 91′PENALTY MISSED · 90' Busko-Zdroj
- FTFULL TIME Busko-Zdroj 2–4 Hetman Zamosc
- FTBusko-Zdroj 2–4 Hetman Zamosc · Hetman Zamosc win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Close to call, with Hetman Zamosc just ahead.
The Pitchside prediction: Busko-Zdroj 38%, draw 22%, Hetman Zamosc 41%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 68%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Busko-Zdroj win38%
Hetman Zamosc win41%Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00
RoundGroup IV · matchday 13
Match timeline
All events
Busko-ZdrojMIN
Hetman ZamoscEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Busko-Zdroj
Hetman Zamosc
Last match: 10 Oct · III Liga - Group 4
Last match: 11 Oct · III Liga - Group 4
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Hetman Zamosc a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.7–1.8.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Busko-Zdroj win | 38% | 33% | +5 |
| Draw | 22% | 26% | −4 |
| Hetman Zamosc win | 41% | 41% | 0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 61% | +7 |
| Both teams to score | 68% | 64% | +4 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | 81% | +6 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47% | 41% | +6 |
| Busko-Zdroj or draw | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Busko-Zdroj clean sheet | 17% | – | – |
| Hetman Zamosc clean sheet | 18% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2026/27No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in III Liga - Group 4 this season · since 5 Sept
BUSKO-ZDROJ
HETMAN ZAMOSC
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chełmianka Chełm | 13 | +14 | 31 |
| 2 | KSZO 1929 | 13 | +14 | 26 |
| 3 | Wisłoka Dębica | 13 | +7 | 26 |
| 4 | Naprzód | 13 | +3 | 23 |
| 5 | Wiślanie Jaśkowice | 13 | +7 | 21 |
| 6 | Czarni Połaniec | 13 | +1 | 21 |
| 7 | Jarosław | 13 | +4 | 17 |
| 8 | Hetman Zamosc | 12 | +1 | 17 |
| 9 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 13 | 0 | 17 |
| 10 | Sokół Kolb. | 13 | 0 | 16 |
| 11 | Wisła Kraków II | 13 | −3 | 16 |
| 12 | KS Wieczysta Krakow II | 13 | −3 | 15 |
| 13 | Star Starachowice | 13 | −2 | 14 |
| 14 | Korona Kielce II | 13 | −3 | 14 |
| 15 | Busko-Zdroj | 12 | −9 | 14 |
| 16 | Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 13 | −7 | 13 |
| 17 | Moravia Morawica | 13 | −10 | 9 |
| 18 | Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów | 13 | −14 | 8 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Chełmianka Chełm
KSZO 1929
Wisłoka Dębica
Naprzód
Wiślanie Jaśkowice
Czarni Połaniec
Jarosław
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Sokół Kolb.
Wisła Kraków II
KS Wieczysta Krakow II
Star Starachowice
Korona Kielce II
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
Moravia Morawica
Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów