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Model 1.2

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Busko-Zdroj v Hetman Zamosc

Busko-Zdroj
2–4Full time
Hetman Zamosc

III Liga - Group 4 · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43
Busko-Zdroj 2–4 Hetman Zamosc HETMAN ZAMOSC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Hetman Zamosc win41%
The market said41%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.543
The market’s Brier score0.528

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 24 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Hetman Zamosc win at 41%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Hetman Zamosc was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 38–22–40
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Busko-Zdroj v Hetman Zamosc
  4. 2′Busko-Zdroj find the net on 2′. 1–0. 1–0 · 60–19–22
  5. 2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Busko-Zdroj 1–0 Hetman Zamosc
  6. 2′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 2' Hetman Zamosc win: 41% at kick-off, 22% now
  7. 2′THE CALL SWINGS · 2' Busko-Zdroj win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Hetman Zamosc win 22%)
  8. 4′We said Hetman Zamosc at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 1–0 · 60–19–21
  9. 4′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 4' Hetman Zamosc win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
  10. 15′We said Hetman Zamosc at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 61–20–19
  11. 22′A goal for Hetman Zamosc on 19′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 36–26–38
  12. 22′⚽ GOAL · 19' Busko-Zdroj 1–1 Hetman Zamosc
  13. 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Hetman Zamosc win: 41% at kick-off, 38% now
  14. 43′Goals are coming at about the 3.6 we expected. 1–1 · 33–32–35
  15. 45′HALF-TIME Busko-Zdroj 1–1 Hetman Zamosc
  16. 46′SECOND HALF Busko-Zdroj 1–1 Hetman Zamosc
  17. 51′Hetman Zamosc score on 50′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 10–21–69
  18. 51′We published Hetman Zamosc at 41%. Our model now makes it 69%. 1–2 · 10–21–69
  19. 51′⚽ GOAL · 50' Busko-Zdroj 1–2 Hetman Zamosc
  20. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Hetman Zamosc win: 41% at kick-off, 69% now
  21. 51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Hetman Zamosc win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Busko-Zdroj win 10%)
  22. 53′We published Hetman Zamosc at 41%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–2 · 9–21–70
  23. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Hetman Zamosc win: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
  24. 62′Busko-Zdroj find the net on 61′. 2–2. 2–2 · 27–44–29
  25. 62′We said Hetman Zamosc at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 2–2 · 27–44–29
  26. 62′⚽ GOAL · 61' Busko-Zdroj 2–2 Hetman Zamosc
  27. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Hetman Zamosc win: 41% at kick-off, 29% now
  28. 62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Hetman Zamosc win 29%)
  29. 63′4 goals already, more than the 3.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 27–45–28
  30. 71′We published Hetman Zamosc at 41%. Our model now makes it 78%. 2–3 · 4–18–78
  31. 71′A goal for Hetman Zamosc on 70′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 4–18–78
  32. 71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Busko-Zdroj 2–3 Hetman Zamosc
  33. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Hetman Zamosc win: 41% at kick-off, 78% now
  34. 71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Hetman Zamosc win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 18%)
  35. 72′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.6 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 4–18–78
  36. 74′We published Hetman Zamosc at 41%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–3 · 3–17–80
  37. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Hetman Zamosc win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
  38. 80′We published Hetman Zamosc at 41%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–3 · 1–13–85
  39. 83′Hetman Zamosc score on 82′ to make it 2–4. 2–4 · 0–1–99
  40. 83′We published Hetman Zamosc at 41%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–4 · 0–1–99
  41. 83′6 goals already, more than the 3.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–4 · 0–1–99
  42. 83′⚽ GOAL · 82' Busko-Zdroj 2–4 Hetman Zamosc
  43. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Hetman Zamosc win: 41% at kick-off, 99% now
  44. 85′We published Hetman Zamosc at 41%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–4 · 0–0–100
  45. 91′PENALTY MISSED · 90' Busko-Zdroj
  46. FTFULL TIME Busko-Zdroj 2–4 Hetman Zamosc
  47. FTBusko-Zdroj 2–4 Hetman Zamosc · Hetman Zamosc win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Hetman Zamosc just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Busko-Zdroj 38%, draw 22%, Hetman Zamosc 41%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Busko-Zdroj v Hetman ZamoscBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Busko-Zdroj win38%
Draw22%
Hetman Zamosc win41%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup IV · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Busko-Zdroj

Hetman Zamosc

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · III Liga - Group 4

Last match: 11 Oct · III Liga - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
8Hetman Zamosc12+117
15Busko-Zdroj12−914

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hetman zamosc winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
41% The market41%
Us41%
Market41%

We make Hetman Zamosc a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.7–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Busko-Zdroj v Hetman Zamosc1.75 – 1.82
Form · last six in III Liga - Group 4 this season · since 5 SeptW3 D0 L3 · W3 D2 L1
Table places · points 14 v 1715 v 8
The market · Hetman Zamosc win41% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 12 OCT 04:0418 OCT 13:48
Our probability · Hetman Zamosc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Busko-Zdroj win38%33%+5
Draw22%26%−4
Hetman Zamosc win41%41%0
Over 2.5 goals68%61%+7
Both teams to score68%64%+4
Over 1.5 goals87%81%+6
Over 3.5 goals47%41%+6
Busko-Zdroj or draw59%59%0
Busko-Zdroj clean sheet17%––
Hetman Zamosc clean sheet18%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.0%
0123450 3.2 5.3 4.7 2.9 1 5.1 9.0 7.9 4.8 2.3 2 4.4 7.6 6.7 4.1 3 2.6 4.4 3.9 2.4 4 2.0 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Busko-Zdroj down, Hetman Zamosc across0–5 goals a side shown (97.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 4 this season · since 5 Sept

BUSKO-ZDROJ

WLWLWL2–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–4 · 3–0 · 0–5

HETMAN ZAMOSC

WLDWDW2–1 · 2–4 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Chełmianka Chełm13+1431
2KSZO 192913+1426
3Wisłoka Dębica13+726
4Naprzód13+323
5Wiślanie Jaśkowice13+721
6Czarni Połaniec13+121
7Jarosław13+417
8Hetman Zamosc12+117
9Siarka Tarnobrzeg13017
10Sokół Kolb.13016
11Wisła Kraków II13−316
12KS Wieczysta Krakow II13−315
13Star Starachowice13−214
14Korona Kielce II13−314
15Busko-Zdroj12−914
16Podlasie Biała Podlaska13−713
17Moravia Morawica13−109
18Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów13−148

The competition's standings before kick-off.