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Zaglebie Sosnowiec v Rakow II

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1–0Full time

Rakow II

III Liga - Group 3 · WED 14 OCT · ArcelorMittal Park

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 19:45

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1–0 Rakow II ZAGLEBIE SOSNOWIEC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Zaglebie Sosnowiec win~~56%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.294

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.181

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Zaglebie Sosnowiec win at 56%.
1′Much as we predicted: Zaglebie Sosnowiec was 56% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 56–23–21
1′KICK-OFF Zaglebie Sosnowiec v Rakow II
29′Zaglebie Sosnowiec find the net on 28′. 1–0. 1–0 · 79–15–6
29′⚽ GOAL · 28' Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1–0 Rakow II
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Zaglebie Sosnowiec win: 56% at kick-off, 79% now
30′We published Zaglebie Sosnowiec at 56%. Our model now makes it 79%. 1–0 · 79–15–6
31′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 79–15–6
42′We published Zaglebie Sosnowiec at 56%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–5
45′HALF-TIME Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1–0 Rakow II
47′SECOND HALF Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1–0 Rakow II
69′We published Zaglebie Sosnowiec at 56%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Zaglebie Sosnowiec win: 56% at kick-off, 86% now
78′We published Zaglebie Sosnowiec at 56%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
83′A goal for Rakow II on 83′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 13–81–7
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1–1 Rakow II
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Zaglebie Sosnowiec win: 56% at kick-off, 13% now
83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Draw is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Zaglebie Sosnowiec win 13%)
85′GOAL DISALLOWED · 85' Rakow II
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Zaglebie Sosnowiec win: 56% at kick-off, 94% now
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Zaglebie Sosnowiec win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 5%)
87′We published Zaglebie Sosnowiec at 56%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Zaglebie Sosnowiec win: 56% at kick-off, 96% now
FTFULL TIME Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1–0 Rakow II
FTZaglebie Sosnowiec 1–0 Rakow II · Zaglebie Sosnowiec win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Zaglebie Sosnowiec v Rakow IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 16:33 · locked at kick-off

Zaglebie Sosnowiec win56%

Draw23%

Rakow II win22%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 17:00

VenueArcelorMittal Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Rakow II

4Days since last match4

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	11	7	22
17	Rakow II	10	-6	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · zaglebie sosnowiec winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 16:33 · locked at kick-off

56% The market65%

Us56%

~~Market~~65%

We make Zaglebie Sosnowiec a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Zaglebie Sosnowiec v Rakow II~~1.86 – 1.06

~~Last six in III Liga - Group 3~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 22 v 9~~4 v 17

~~The market · Zaglebie Sosnowiec win~~65% · ours 56%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · zaglebie sosnowiec win The market, margin stripped

Published at 55%, 56% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zaglebie Sosnowiec win	56%	65%	−10
Draw	23%	20%	+2
Rakow II win	22%	14%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	55%	61%	−5
Both teams to score	54%	55%	0
Over 1.5 goals	78%	81%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	34%	40%	−7
Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw	78%	86%	−8
Zaglebie Sosnowiec clean sheet	35%	–	–
Rakow II clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 5.8 5.9 3.1 1 10.1 10.4 5.5 2.0 2 9.2 9.5 5.0 3 5.7 5.9 3.1 4 2.8 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zaglebie Sosnowiec down, Rakow II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,620 III Liga - Group 3 matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

III Liga - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.8% of games this season, across 106 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home: 2.00 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 3). Rakow II away: 1.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.86 goals for Zaglebie Sosnowiec, 1.06 for Rakow II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in III Liga - Group 3 since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3

ZAGLEBIE SOSNOWIEC

LLWWWW0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–0

RAKOW II

LDWDWL0–3 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sparta Katowice	12	11	24
2	Zagłębie Lubin II	12	10	24
3	Odra Bytom Odrzański	12	7	24
4	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	11	7	22
5	Barycz Sułów	12	5	21
6	ROW Rybnik	12	6	20
7	Górnik Polkowice	12	4	18
8	Karkonosze Jelenia Góra	12	4	18
9	Miedź Legnica II	12	5	17
10	Stilon Gorzów	12	1	16
11	Warta Gorzów	12	-7	14
12	Stal Brzeg	12	1	12
13	Goczałkowice Zdrój	12	-5	12
14	Kluczbork	11	-8	12
15	Polonia Nysa	12	-11	11
16	Ślęza Wrocław	12	-10	10
17	Rakow II	10	-6	9
18	Carina Gubin	12	-14	9