Zaglebie Sosnowiec v Miedź Legnica II prediction · III Liga

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 18:31

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3–1 Miedź Legnica II ZAGLEBIE SOSNOWIEC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Zaglebie Sosnowiec win~~47%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.429

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.337

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Zaglebie Sosnowiec win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: Zaglebie Sosnowiec was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–23–30
1′KICK-OFF Zaglebie Sosnowiec v Miedź Legnica II
25′PENALTY MISSED · 24' Miedź Legnica II
26′A goal for Zaglebie Sosnowiec on 26′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 71–18–11
26′We published Zaglebie Sosnowiec at 47%. Our model now makes it 71%. 1–0 · 71–18–11
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1–0 Miedź Legnica II
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Zaglebie Sosnowiec win: 47% at kick-off, 71% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 72–18–10
32′A red card for Miedź Legnica II on 32′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 72–19–10
32′🟥 RED CARD · 32' Miedź Legnica II
40′Zaglebie Sosnowiec score on 40′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
40′We published Zaglebie Sosnowiec at 47%. Our model now makes it 92%. 2–0 · 92–6–2
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2–0 Miedź Legnica II
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Zaglebie Sosnowiec win: 47% at kick-off, 92% now
44′Zaglebie Sosnowiec find the net on 44′. 3–0. 3–0 · 98–1–0
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3–0 Miedź Legnica II
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Zaglebie Sosnowiec win: 47% at kick-off, 98% now
45′We published Zaglebie Sosnowiec at 47%. Our model now makes it 98%. 3–0 · 98–1–0
45′HALF-TIME Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3–0 Miedź Legnica II
46′SECOND HALF Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3–0 Miedź Legnica II
66′We published Zaglebie Sosnowiec at 47%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
71′A goal for Miedź Legnica II on 70′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 98–2–0
71′⚽ GOAL · 70' Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3–1 Miedź Legnica II
72′4 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 98–2–0
FTFULL TIME Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3–1 Miedź Legnica II
FTZaglebie Sosnowiec 3–1 Miedź Legnica II · Zaglebie Sosnowiec win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Zaglebie Sosnowiec are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Zaglebie Sosnowiec 47%, draw 23%, Miedź Legnica II 30%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Zaglebie Sosnowiec v Miedź Legnica IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Zaglebie Sosnowiec win47%

Draw23%

Miedź Legnica II win30%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup III · matchday 14

VenueArcelorMittal Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Miedź Legnica II

6Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · III Liga - Group 3

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · zaglebie sosnowiec winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 00:20 · locked at kick-off

47% The market53%

Us47%

~~Market~~53%

We make Zaglebie Sosnowiec a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Zaglebie Sosnowiec v Miedź Legnica II~~1.74 – 1.35

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3 this season · since 12 Sept~~W6 D0 L0 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 28 v 17~~1 v 9

~~The market · Zaglebie Sosnowiec win~~53% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Zaglebie Sosnowiec win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 47% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zaglebie Sosnowiec win	47%	53%	−6
Draw	23%	24%	−1
Miedź Legnica II win	30%	24%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	59%	61%	−2
Both teams to score	60%	62%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	81%	80%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	37%	40%	−3
Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw	70%	76%	−6
Zaglebie Sosnowiec clean sheet	27%	–	–
Miedź Legnica II clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 4.8 6.3 4.2 1 8.1 10.5 7.0 3.2 2 6.9 9.0 6.0 2.7 3 4.0 5.3 3.5 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zaglebie Sosnowiec down, Miedź Legnica II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,630 III Liga - Group 3 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.6% of games this season, across 116 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home: 1.75 scored, 0.25 conceded a game (last 4). Miedź Legnica II away: 2.67 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.74 goals for Zaglebie Sosnowiec, 1.35 for Miedź Legnica II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3 this season · since 12 Sept

ZAGLEBIE SOSNOWIEC

WWWWWW2–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0

MIEDŹ LEGNICA II

WWLWWL5–0 · 5–3 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	13	+9	28
2	Sparta Katowice	13	+13	27
3	Odra Bytom Odrzański	13	+7	25
4	Zagłębie Lubin II	13	+9	24
5	Barycz Sułów	13	+3	21
6	ROW Rybnik	13	+4	20
7	Karkonosze Jelenia Góra	13	+4	19
8	Górnik Polkowice	13	+2	18
9	Miedź Legnica II	13	+3	17
10	Stilon Gorzów	13	+1	17
11	Stal Brzeg	13	+3	15
12	Goczałkowice Zdrój	13	−3	15
13	Kluczbork	12	−6	15
14	Warta Gorzów	13	−8	14
15	Rakow II	12	−6	12
16	Polonia Nysa	13	−11	12
17	Carina Gubin	13	−12	12
18	Ślęza Wrocław	13	−12	10