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Zaglebie Sosnowiec v Kluczbork

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1–0Full time

Kluczbork

III Liga - Group 3 · SAT 10 OCT · ArcelorMittal Park

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:32

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1–0 Kluczbork ZAGLEBIE SOSNOWIEC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Zaglebie Sosnowiec win~~40%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.540

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.297

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Zaglebie Sosnowiec win at 40%.
2′KICK-OFF Zaglebie Sosnowiec v Kluczbork
4′Much as we predicted: Zaglebie Sosnowiec was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–26–34
15′⚽ GOAL · 14' Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1–0 Kluczbork
26′M. Podgorski scores for Zaglebie Sosnowiec on 14′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 68–21–12
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Zaglebie Sosnowiec win: 40% at kick-off, 68% now
45′HALF-TIME Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1–0 Kluczbork
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Zaglebie Sosnowiec win: 40% at kick-off, 68% now
47′SECOND HALF Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1–0 Kluczbork
FTFULL TIME Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1–0 Kluczbork
FTZaglebie Sosnowiec 1–0 Kluczbork · Zaglebie Sosnowiec win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Zaglebie Sosnowiec win40%

Draw25%

Kluczbork win35%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:00

Venue · ArcelorMittal Park

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · zaglebie sosnowiec winPublished 10 Oct 16:17

40% The market56%

Us40%

~~Market~~56%

We make Zaglebie Sosnowiec a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · zaglebie sosnowiec win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zaglebie Sosnowiec win	40%	56%	−15
Draw	25%	24%	+1
Kluczbork win	35%	21%	+14
Over 2.5 goals	53%	57%	−4
Both teams to score	56%	57%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	76%	79%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	31%	36%	−5
Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw	65%	79%	−14
Zaglebie Sosnowiec clean sheet	27%	–	–
Kluczbork clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.5 8.2 5.5 2.5 1 9.0 11.7 7.7 3.5 2 6.5 8.4 5.6 2.5 3 3.2 4.2 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zaglebie Sosnowiec down, Kluczbork across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,612 III Liga - Group 3 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

III Liga - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.1% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home: 2.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 2). Kluczbork away: 0.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for Zaglebie Sosnowiec, 1.34 for Kluczbork. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3

ZAGLEBIE SOSNOWIEC

WLLWWW4–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–0

KLUCZBORK

WWLWLL1–0 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sparta Katowice	11	+12	24
2	Zagłębie Lubin II	11	+10	23
3	Odra Bytom Odrzański	11	+7	23
4	Barycz Sułów	11	+5	20
5	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	10	+6	19
6	Górnik Polkowice	12	+4	18
7	ROW Rybnik	11	+5	17
8	Stilon Gorzów	12	+1	16
9	Karkonosze Jelenia Góra	11	+3	15
10	Miedź Legnica II	11	+4	14
11	Warta Gorzów	11	−6	14
12	Kluczbork	10	−7	12
13	Stal Brzeg	11	+1	11
14	Goczałkowice Zdrój	11	−5	11
15	Ślęza Wrocław	11	−9	10
16	Rakow II	9	−5	9
17	Polonia Nysa	11	−12	8
18	Carina Gubin	11	−14	8