Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.1

Home › Football › III Liga - Group 3 › Zagłębie Lubin II v Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Back
Poland flag

Zagłębie Lubin II v Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Zagłębie Lubin II
0–1Full time
Zaglebie Sosnowiec

III Liga - Group 3 · SAT 17 OCT · KGHM Zaglebie Arena

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 13:56
Zagłębie Lubin II 0–1 Zaglebie Sosnowiec ZAGŁĘBIE LUBIN II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Zagłębie Lubin II win47%
The market said40%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.748
The market’s Brier score0.652

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 9 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Zagłębie Lubin II win at 47%.
  2. 2′Little has changed for our model: Zagłębie Lubin II 47% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–23–31
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Zagłębie Lubin II v Zaglebie Sosnowiec
  4. 20′A goal for Zaglebie Sosnowiec on 20′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 21–23–56
  5. 20′We said Zagłębie Lubin II at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–23–56
  6. 20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Zagłębie Lubin II 0–1 Zaglebie Sosnowiec
  7. 20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Zagłębie Lubin II win: 47% at kick-off, 21% now
  8. 20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Zaglebie Sosnowiec win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Zagłębie Lubin II win 21%)
  9. 27′We said Zagłębie Lubin II at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–23–58
  10. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 0–1 · 18–23–58
  11. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Zagłębie Lubin II win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
  12. 43′We said Zagłębie Lubin II at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–61
  13. 45′HALF-TIME Zagłębie Lubin II 0–1 Zaglebie Sosnowiec
  14. 46′SECOND HALF Zagłębie Lubin II 0–1 Zaglebie Sosnowiec
  15. 58′We said Zagłębie Lubin II at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
  16. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Zagłębie Lubin II win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
  17. 71′We said Zagłębie Lubin II at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–75
  18. FTFULL TIME Zagłębie Lubin II 0–1 Zaglebie Sosnowiec
  19. FTZagłębie Lubin II 0–1 Zaglebie Sosnowiec · Zagłębie Lubin II win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Zagłębie Lubin II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Zagłębie Lubin II 47%, draw 23%, Zaglebie Sosnowiec 31%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Zagłębie Lubin II v Zaglebie SosnowiecBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Zagłębie Lubin II win47%
Draw23%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec win31%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup III · matchday 13

VenueKGHM Zaglebie Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Zagłębie Lubin II

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

7Days since last match3

Last match: 10 Oct · III Liga - Group 3

Last match: 14 Oct · III Liga - Group 3

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Zaglebie Sosnowiec12+825
3Zagłębie Lubin II12+1024

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · zagłębie lubin ii winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
47% The market40%
Us47%
Market40%

We make Zagłębie Lubin II a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Zagłębie Lubin II v Zaglebie Sosnowiec1.81 – 1.42
Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3 this season · since 5 SeptW2 D4 L0 · W5 D0 L1
Table places · points 24 v 253 v 1
The market · Zagłębie Lubin II win40% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50% 11 OCT 04:0517 OCT 10:43
Our probability · Zagłębie Lubin II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Zagłębie Lubin II win47%40%+7
Draw23%26%−3
Zaglebie Sosnowiec win31%35%−4
Over 2.5 goals62%58%+4
Both teams to score62%62%0
Over 1.5 goals83%79%+4
Over 3.5 goals40%38%+2
Zagłębie Lubin II or draw69%65%+4
Zagłębie Lubin II clean sheet25%––
Zaglebie Sosnowiec clean sheet17%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%
0123450 4.2 5.8 4.1 1 7.3 10.0 7.1 3.4 2 6.4 8.9 6.2 3.0 3 3.9 5.3 3.8 4 2.5 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Zagłębie Lubin II down, Zaglebie Sosnowiec across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.51 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsSOS 3–1 LUB · LUB 0–0 SOS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept

ZAGŁĘBIE LUBIN II

WDWDDD1–0 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 1–1

ZAGLEBIE SOSNOWIEC

LWWWWW0–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Zaglebie Sosnowiec12+825
2Sparta Katowice12+1124
3Zagłębie Lubin II12+1024
4Odra Bytom Odrzański12+724
5Barycz Sułów12+521
6ROW Rybnik12+620
7Karkonosze Jelenia Góra13+419
8Górnik Polkowice12+418
9Miedź Legnica II12+517
10Stilon Gorzów12+116
11Warta Gorzów12−714
12Stal Brzeg12+112
13Goczałkowice Zdrój12−512
14Kluczbork11−812
15Polonia Nysa13−1112
16Ślęza Wrocław12−1010
17Rakow II11−79
18Carina Gubin12−149

The competition's standings before kick-off.