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Zagłębie Lubin II v Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zagłębie Lubin II
Zaglebie SosnowiecIII Liga - Group 3 · SAT 17 OCT · KGHM Zaglebie Arena
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Zagłębie Lubin II win at 47%.
- 2′Little has changed for our model: Zagłębie Lubin II 47% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–23–31
- 2′KICK-OFF Zagłębie Lubin II v Zaglebie Sosnowiec
- 20′A goal for Zaglebie Sosnowiec on 20′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 21–23–56
- 20′We said Zagłębie Lubin II at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–23–56
- 20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Zagłębie Lubin II 0–1 Zaglebie Sosnowiec
- 20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Zagłębie Lubin II win: 47% at kick-off, 21% now
- 20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Zaglebie Sosnowiec win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Zagłębie Lubin II win 21%)
- 27′We said Zagłębie Lubin II at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–23–58
- 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 0–1 · 18–23–58
- 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Zagłębie Lubin II win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
- 43′We said Zagłębie Lubin II at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–61
- 45′HALF-TIME Zagłębie Lubin II 0–1 Zaglebie Sosnowiec
- 46′SECOND HALF Zagłębie Lubin II 0–1 Zaglebie Sosnowiec
- 58′We said Zagłębie Lubin II at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
- 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Zagłębie Lubin II win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
- 71′We said Zagłębie Lubin II at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–75
- FTFULL TIME Zagłębie Lubin II 0–1 Zaglebie Sosnowiec
- FTZagłębie Lubin II 0–1 Zaglebie Sosnowiec · Zagłębie Lubin II win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassZagłębie Lubin II are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Zagłębie Lubin II 47%, draw 23%, Zaglebie Sosnowiec 31%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 62%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Zagłębie Lubin II win47%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec win31%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 11:00
RoundGroup III · matchday 13
VenueKGHM Zaglebie Arena
Match timeline
All events
Zagłębie Lubin IIMIN
Zaglebie SosnowiecEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Zagłębie Lubin II
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Last match: 10 Oct · III Liga - Group 3
Last match: 14 Oct · III Liga - Group 3
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Zagłębie Lubin II a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.4.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zagłębie Lubin II win | 47% | 40% | +7 |
| Draw | 23% | 26% | −3 |
| Zaglebie Sosnowiec win | 31% | 35% | −4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 58% | +4 |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | 79% | +4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 38% | +2 |
| Zagłębie Lubin II or draw | 69% | 65% | +4 |
| Zagłębie Lubin II clean sheet | 25% | – | – |
| Zaglebie Sosnowiec clean sheet | 17% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
2 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept
ZAGŁĘBIE LUBIN II
ZAGLEBIE SOSNOWIEC
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zaglebie Sosnowiec | 12 | +8 | 25 |
| 2 | Sparta Katowice | 12 | +11 | 24 |
| 3 | Zagłębie Lubin II | 12 | +10 | 24 |
| 4 | Odra Bytom Odrzański | 12 | +7 | 24 |
| 5 | Barycz Sułów | 12 | +5 | 21 |
| 6 | ROW Rybnik | 12 | +6 | 20 |
| 7 | Karkonosze Jelenia Góra | 13 | +4 | 19 |
| 8 | Górnik Polkowice | 12 | +4 | 18 |
| 9 | Miedź Legnica II | 12 | +5 | 17 |
| 10 | Stilon Gorzów | 12 | +1 | 16 |
| 11 | Warta Gorzów | 12 | −7 | 14 |
| 12 | Stal Brzeg | 12 | +1 | 12 |
| 13 | Goczałkowice Zdrój | 12 | −5 | 12 |
| 14 | Kluczbork | 11 | −8 | 12 |
| 15 | Polonia Nysa | 13 | −11 | 12 |
| 16 | Ślęza Wrocław | 12 | −10 | 10 |
| 17 | Rakow II | 11 | −7 | 9 |
| 18 | Carina Gubin | 12 | −14 | 9 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Sparta Katowice
Odra Bytom Odrzański
Barycz Sułów
ROW Rybnik
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
Górnik Polkowice
Miedź Legnica II
Stilon Gorzów
Warta Gorzów
Stal Brzeg
Goczałkowice Zdrój
Kluczbork
Polonia Nysa
Ślęza Wrocław
Rakow II
Carina Gubin