Zagłębie Lubin II v Stilon Gorzów prediction · III Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Zagłębie Lubin IIDrawStilon Gorzów

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Zagłębie Lubin II 54%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Zagłębie Lubin II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Zagłębie Lubin II 54%, draw 21%, Stilon Gorzów 25%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Zagłębie Lubin II v Stilon GorzówBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Zagłębie Lubin II win54%

Draw21%

Stilon Gorzów win25%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup III · matchday 14

VenueKGHM Zaglebie Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Zagłębie Lubin II

Stilon Gorzów

8Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · III Liga - Group 3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Zagłębie Lubin II	13	+9	24
10	Stilon Gorzów	13	+1	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · zagłębie lubin ii winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Zagłębie Lubin II a 54% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.4, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Zagłębie Lubin II v Stilon Gorzów~~2.12 – 1.37

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3 this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D4 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 24 v 17~~4 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zagłębie Lubin II win	54%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Stilon Gorzów win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	67%	–	–
Both teams to score	65%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	46%	–	–
Zagłębie Lubin II or draw	75%	–	–
Zagłębie Lubin II clean sheet	26%	–	–
Stilon Gorzów clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.1%

0123450 3.3 4.4 3.0 1 6.6 8.8 6.0 2.8 2 6.8 9.1 6.2 2.9 3 4.8 6.4 4.3 2.0 4 2.6 3.4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zagłębie Lubin II down, Stilon Gorzów across0–5 goals a side shown (97.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,631 III Liga - Group 3 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.0% of games this season, across 117 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2022/23.

Home and away form

Zagłębie Lubin II at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Stilon Gorzów away: 2.17 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.12 goals for Zagłębie Lubin II, 1.37 for Stilon Gorzów. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022/23

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3 this season · since 12 Sept

ZAGŁĘBIE LUBIN II

DWDDDL2–2 · 3–0 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1

STILON GORZÓW

LDWWLD2–4 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–4 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	14	+11	31
2	Sparta Katowice	13	+13	27
3	Odra Bytom Odrzański	13	+7	25
4	Zagłębie Lubin II	13	+9	24
5	Górnik Polkowice	14	+5	21
6	Barycz Sułów	13	+3	21
7	ROW Rybnik	13	+4	20
8	Karkonosze Jelenia Góra	13	+4	19
9	Miedź Legnica II	14	+1	17
10	Stilon Gorzów	13	+1	17
11	Stal Brzeg	13	+3	15
12	Goczałkowice Zdrój	14	−6	15
13	Kluczbork	12	−6	15
14	Warta Gorzów	13	−8	14
15	Rakow II	12	−6	12
16	Polonia Nysa	13	−11	12
17	Carina Gubin	13	−12	12
18	Ślęza Wrocław	13	−12	10