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Warta Gorzów v Polonia Nysa

Warta Gorzów

0–1Full time

Polonia Nysa

III Liga - Group 3 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Warta Gorzów 0–1 Polonia Nysa WARTA GORZÓW WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Warta Gorzów win~~54%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.928

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.874

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Warta Gorzów win at 54%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Warta Gorzów 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–23–23
2′KICK-OFF Warta Gorzów v Polonia Nysa
23′Polonia Nysa find the net on 23′. 0–1. 0–1 · 24–26–51
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Warta Gorzów 0–1 Polonia Nysa
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Warta Gorzów win: 54% at kick-off, 24% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Polonia Nysa win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Warta Gorzów win 24%)
42′⚽ GOAL · 23' Warta Gorzów 0–1 Polonia Nysa
45′We said Warta Gorzów at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–27–58
45′HALF-TIME Warta Gorzów 0–1 Polonia Nysa
47′SECOND HALF Warta Gorzów 0–1 Polonia Nysa
51′We said Warta Gorzów at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–27–60
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Warta Gorzów win: 54% at kick-off, 13% now
FTFULL TIME Warta Gorzów 0–1 Polonia Nysa
FTWarta Gorzów 0–1 Polonia Nysa · Warta Gorzów win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Warta Gorzów win54%

Draw23%

Polonia Nysa win23%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · warta gorzów winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

54% The market50%

Us54%

~~Market~~50%

We make Warta Gorzów a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · warta gorzów win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Warta Gorzów win	54%	50%	+4
Draw	23%	25%	−2
Polonia Nysa win	23%	25%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	56%	57%	−1
Both teams to score	56%	59%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	79%	78%	0
Over 3.5 goals	34%	36%	−3
Warta Gorzów or draw	77%	75%	+2
Warta Gorzów clean sheet	33%	–	–
Polonia Nysa clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 5.6 6.0 3.4 1 9.7 10.7 5.9 2.2 2 8.8 9.5 5.3 2.0 3 5.3 5.8 3.2 4 2.5 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Warta Gorzów down, Polonia Nysa across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,612 III Liga - Group 3 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

III Liga - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.1% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.25 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Warta Gorzów at home: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Polonia Nysa away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.82 goals for Warta Gorzów, 1.11 for Polonia Nysa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~WAR 1–0 POL · POL 1–1 WAR · POL 1–1 WAR · WAR 2–2 POL

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3

WARTA GORZÓW

LDWLDD0–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 1–1

POLONIA NYSA

LLLLWL1–3 · 0–4 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sparta Katowice	11	+12	24
2	Zagłębie Lubin II	11	+10	23
3	Odra Bytom Odrzański	11	+7	23
4	Barycz Sułów	11	+5	20
5	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	10	+6	19
6	Górnik Polkowice	12	+4	18
7	ROW Rybnik	11	+5	17
8	Stilon Gorzów	12	+1	16
9	Karkonosze Jelenia Góra	11	+3	15
10	Miedź Legnica II	11	+4	14
11	Warta Gorzów	11	−6	14
12	Kluczbork	10	−7	12
13	Stal Brzeg	11	+1	11
14	Goczałkowice Zdrój	11	−5	11
15	Ślęza Wrocław	11	−9	10
16	Rakow II	9	−5	9
17	Polonia Nysa	11	−12	8
18	Carina Gubin	11	−14	8