Warta Gorzów v Kluczbork prediction · III Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Warta GorzówDrawKluczbork

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Kluczbork 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kluczbork are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Warta Gorzów 33%, draw 26%, Kluczbork 41%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Warta Gorzów v KluczborkBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Warta Gorzów win33%

Draw26%

Kluczbork win41%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup III · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Warta Gorzów

Kluczbork

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · III Liga - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Kluczbork	12	−6	15
14	Warta Gorzów	13	−8	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kluczbork winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

41% The market32%

Us41%

~~Market~~32%

We make Kluczbork a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Warta Gorzów v Kluczbork~~1.27 – 1.44

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 14 v 15~~14 v 13

~~The market · Kluczbork win~~32% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kluczbork win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Warta Gorzów win	33%	41%	−8
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Kluczbork win	41%	32%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	51%	53%	−2
Both teams to score	54%	57%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	75%	76%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	29%	32%	−3
Warta Gorzów or draw	59%	68%	−9
Warta Gorzów clean sheet	24%	–	–
Kluczbork clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.9 9.7 6.9 3.3 1 8.5 12.0 8.5 4.1 2 5.4 7.6 5.4 2.6 3 2.3 3.3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Warta Gorzów down, Kluczbork across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,631 III Liga - Group 3 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.0% of games this season, across 117 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Warta Gorzów at home: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Kluczbork away: 0.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Warta Gorzów, 1.44 for Kluczbork. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~KLU 0–1 WAR · WAR 1–2 KLU · WAR 0–0 KLU · KLU 1–1 WAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept

WARTA GORZÓW

WLDDLL1–0 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–3

KLUCZBORK

LWLLLW0–3 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	14	+11	31
2	Sparta Katowice	13	+13	27
3	Odra Bytom Odrzański	13	+7	25
4	Zagłębie Lubin II	13	+9	24
5	Barycz Sułów	13	+3	21
6	ROW Rybnik	13	+4	20
7	Karkonosze Jelenia Góra	13	+4	19
8	Górnik Polkowice	13	+2	18
9	Miedź Legnica II	14	+1	17
10	Stilon Gorzów	13	+1	17
11	Stal Brzeg	13	+3	15
12	Goczałkowice Zdrój	13	−3	15
13	Kluczbork	12	−6	15
14	Warta Gorzów	13	−8	14
15	Rakow II	12	−6	12
16	Polonia Nysa	13	−11	12
17	Carina Gubin	13	−12	12
18	Ślęza Wrocław	13	−12	10