Stilon Gorzów v Zaglebie Sosnowiec prediction · III Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Stilon GorzówDrawZaglebie Sosnowiec

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Zaglebie Sosnowiec 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Zaglebie Sosnowiec are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Stilon Gorzów 34%, draw 27%, Zaglebie Sosnowiec 40%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Stilon Gorzów v Zaglebie SosnowiecBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Stilon Gorzów win34%

Draw27%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec win40%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 12:00

RoundGroup III · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Stilon Gorzów

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

14Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · III Liga - Group 3

Last match: 23 Oct · III Liga - Group 3

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · zaglebie sosnowiec winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Zaglebie Sosnowiec a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Stilon Gorzów v Zaglebie Sosnowiec~~1.20 – 1.33

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3 this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 17 v 31~~11 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stilon Gorzów win	34%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Zaglebie Sosnowiec win	40%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Stilon Gorzów or draw	60%	–	–
Stilon Gorzów clean sheet	27%	–	–
Zaglebie Sosnowiec clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 8.3 10.7 7.0 3.1 1 9.7 12.4 8.2 3.7 2 5.8 7.4 4.9 2.2 3 2.4 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stilon Gorzów down, Zaglebie Sosnowiec across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,638 III Liga - Group 3 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.8% of games this season, across 124 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2022/23.

Home and away form

Stilon Gorzów at home: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Zaglebie Sosnowiec away: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Stilon Gorzów, 1.33 for Zaglebie Sosnowiec. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022/23

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3 this season · since 13 Sept

STILON GORZÓW

LDWWLD2–4 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–4 · 0–0

ZAGLEBIE SOSNOWIEC

WWWWWW2–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	14	+11	31
2	Sparta Katowice	14	+15	30
3	Odra Bytom Odrzański	14	+8	28
4	Zagłębie Lubin II	13	+9	24
5	ROW Rybnik	14	+7	23
6	Karkonosze Jelenia Góra	14	+6	22
7	Górnik Polkowice	14	+5	21
8	Barycz Sułów	14	+2	21
9	Kluczbork	13	−4	18
10	Miedź Legnica II	14	+1	17
11	Stilon Gorzów	13	+1	17
12	Stal Brzeg	14	+2	15
13	Goczałkowice Zdrój	14	−6	15
14	Warta Gorzów	14	−10	14
15	Ślęza Wrocław	14	−11	13
16	Rakow II	13	−8	12
17	Polonia Nysa	14	−14	12
18	Carina Gubin	14	−14	12