Stilon Gorzów v Odra Bytom Odrzański prediction · III Liga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Stilon Gorzów 0–0 Odra Bytom Odrzański STILON GORZÓW WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Stilon Gorzów win~~45%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.831

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.793

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Stilon Gorzów are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Stilon Gorzów 45%, draw 26%, Odra Bytom Odrzański 29%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Stilon Gorzów v Odra Bytom OdrzańskiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Stilon Gorzów win45%

Draw26%

Odra Bytom Odrzański win29%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup III · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Stilon Gorzów

Odra Bytom Odrzański

8Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · III Liga - Group 3

Last match: 10 Oct · III Liga - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Odra Bytom Odrzański	12	+7	24
10	Stilon Gorzów	12	+1	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · stilon gorzów winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

45% The market34%

Us45%

~~Market~~34%

We make Stilon Gorzów a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Stilon Gorzów v Odra Bytom Odrzański~~1.45 – 1.09

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 16 v 24~~10 v 4

~~The market · Stilon Gorzów win~~34% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Stilon Gorzów win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stilon Gorzów win	45%	34%	+11
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Odra Bytom Odrzański win	29%	39%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	46%	54%	−8
Both teams to score	50%	59%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	71%	76%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	25%	34%	−9
Stilon Gorzów or draw	71%	61%	+10
Stilon Gorzów clean sheet	34%	–	–
Odra Bytom Odrzański clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 8.3 8.7 4.7 1 11.5 12.2 6.6 2.5 2 8.2 8.7 4.7 3 4.0 4.3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stilon Gorzów down, Odra Bytom Odrzański across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,622 III Liga - Group 3 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.7% of games this season, across 108 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Stilon Gorzów at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Odra Bytom Odrzański away: 0.83 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Stilon Gorzów, 1.09 for Odra Bytom Odrzański. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ODR 2–4 STI · STI 1–0 ODR · STI 1–1 ODR · ODR 0–0 STI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept

STILON GORZÓW

DLDWWL1–1 · 2–4 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–4

ODRA BYTOM ODRZAŃSKI

WDWWLD3–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	12	+8	25
2	Sparta Katowice	12	+11	24
3	Zagłębie Lubin II	12	+10	24
4	Odra Bytom Odrzański	12	+7	24
5	Barycz Sułów	12	+5	21
6	ROW Rybnik	12	+6	20
7	Karkonosze Jelenia Góra	13	+4	19
8	Górnik Polkowice	12	+4	18
9	Miedź Legnica II	12	+5	17
10	Stilon Gorzów	12	+1	16
11	Warta Gorzów	12	−7	14
12	Stal Brzeg	12	+1	12
13	Goczałkowice Zdrój	12	−5	12
14	Kluczbork	11	−8	12
15	Polonia Nysa	13	−11	12
16	Ślęza Wrocław	12	−10	10
17	Rakow II	11	−7	9
18	Carina Gubin	12	−14	9