Stal Brzeg v Zagłębie Lubin II prediction · III Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Stal BrzegDrawZagłębie Lubin II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Zagłębie Lubin II 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Zagłębie Lubin II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Stal Brzeg 30%, draw 21%, Zagłębie Lubin II 48%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Stal Brzeg v Zagłębie Lubin IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Stal Brzeg win30%

Draw21%

Zagłębie Lubin II win48%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 12:00

RoundGroup III · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Stal Brzeg

Zagłębie Lubin II

7Days since last match14

Last match: 24 Oct · III Liga - Group 3

Last match: 17 Oct · III Liga - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Zagłębie Lubin II	13	+9	24
12	Stal Brzeg	14	+2	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · zagłębie lubin ii winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Zagłębie Lubin II a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–2.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Stal Brzeg v Zagłębie Lubin II~~1.53 – 2.00

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3 this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 15 v 24~~12 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stal Brzeg win	30%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Zagłębie Lubin II win	48%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	68%	–	–
Both teams to score	67%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	47%	–	–
Stal Brzeg or draw	52%	–	–
Stal Brzeg clean sheet	14%	–	–
Zagłębie Lubin II clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.9%

0123450 3.1 6.0 5.8 3.9 2.0 1 4.7 8.9 8.6 5.7 2.9 2 3.6 6.8 6.6 4.3 2.2 3 3.5 3.4 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stal Brzeg down, Zagłębie Lubin II across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,638 III Liga - Group 3 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.8% of games this season, across 124 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Stal Brzeg at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Zagłębie Lubin II away: 2.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for Stal Brzeg, 2.00 for Zagłębie Lubin II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ZAG 3–2 STA · STA 1–2 ZAG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3 this season · since 12 Sept

STAL BRZEG

WLLDWL1–0 · 3–4 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–3

ZAGŁĘBIE LUBIN II

DWDDDL2–2 · 3–0 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	14	+11	31
2	Sparta Katowice	14	+15	30
3	Odra Bytom Odrzański	14	+8	28
4	Zagłębie Lubin II	13	+9	24
5	ROW Rybnik	14	+7	23
6	Karkonosze Jelenia Góra	14	+6	22
7	Górnik Polkowice	14	+5	21
8	Barycz Sułów	14	+2	21
9	Kluczbork	13	−4	18
10	Miedź Legnica II	14	+1	17
11	Stilon Gorzów	13	+1	17
12	Stal Brzeg	14	+2	15
13	Goczałkowice Zdrój	14	−6	15
14	Warta Gorzów	14	−10	14
15	Ślęza Wrocław	14	−11	13
16	Rakow II	13	−8	12
17	Polonia Nysa	14	−14	12
18	Carina Gubin	14	−14	12