Stal Brzeg v Górnik Polkowice prediction · III Liga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Stal Brzeg 2–0 Górnik Polkowice GÓRNIK POLKOWICE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Górnik Polkowice win~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.805

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Górnik Polkowice are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Stal Brzeg 28%, draw 23%, Górnik Polkowice 49%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Stal Brzeg v Górnik PolkowiceBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Stal Brzeg win28%

Draw23%

Górnik Polkowice win49%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup III · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Stal Brzeg

Górnik Polkowice

7Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · III Liga - Group 3

Last match: 9 Oct · III Liga - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Górnik Polkowice	12	+4	18
12	Stal Brzeg	12	+1	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · górnik polkowice winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Górnik Polkowice a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Stal Brzeg v Górnik Polkowice~~1.28 – 1.76

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 18~~12 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stal Brzeg win	28%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Górnik Polkowice win	49%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	58%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	–	–
Stal Brzeg or draw	51%	–	–
Stal Brzeg clean sheet	18%	–	–
Górnik Polkowice clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 5.0 8.5 7.4 4.4 2.0 1 6.3 10.6 9.1 5.4 2.4 2 4.0 6.8 5.8 3.4 3 2.9 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stal Brzeg down, Górnik Polkowice across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,622 III Liga - Group 3 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.7% of games this season, across 108 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Stal Brzeg at home: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Górnik Polkowice away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Stal Brzeg, 1.76 for Górnik Polkowice. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~STA 2–1 GOR · GOR 1–1 STA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept

STAL BRZEG

LLWLLD2–4 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 3–4 · 0–1 · 1–1

GÓRNIK POLKOWICE

WLLLDW2–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	12	+8	25
2	Sparta Katowice	12	+11	24
3	Zagłębie Lubin II	12	+10	24
4	Odra Bytom Odrzański	12	+7	24
5	Barycz Sułów	12	+5	21
6	ROW Rybnik	12	+6	20
7	Karkonosze Jelenia Góra	13	+4	19
8	Górnik Polkowice	12	+4	18
9	Miedź Legnica II	12	+5	17
10	Stilon Gorzów	12	+1	16
11	Warta Gorzów	12	−7	14
12	Stal Brzeg	12	+1	12
13	Goczałkowice Zdrój	12	−5	12
14	Kluczbork	11	−8	12
15	Polonia Nysa	13	−11	12
16	Ślęza Wrocław	12	−10	10
17	Rakow II	11	−7	9
18	Carina Gubin	12	−14	9